Engineering a reduction in output from the suckler sector, either by way of voluntary exit or extensification, is understandably a challenging concept for both farmers and processors.

However, analysis shows the sector is already in decline and many farmers appear open to considering the option of a voluntary exit or reducing production.

Taking the option of a voluntary suckler beef exit scheme off the table, as the Minister for Agriculture Charlie McConalogue has confirmed in recent weeks, doesn’t serve farmers’ interests as the sector continues to contract.

In fact, a situation could arise whereby numbers continue to fall and farmers continue to exit suckler production, contributing to emissions reduction, yet not receiving the compensation that they may have done under a voluntary exit scheme.

It seems particularly illogical when a similar option looks set to be made available to dairy farmers where a similar contraction is not under way.

Fewer suckler cows

Suckler cow numbers have fallen by almost one-fifth in the past decade to 940,300 head in 2021, according to CSO data.

While there has been a small increase in the average number of suckler cows per farm, Teagasc analysis indicates there has been a significant decrease in the number of farms with suckler cows, down 17% between 2010 and 2020.

While a small number have converted to dairying, in the main economics continues to squeeze suckler production.

Analysis from the Teagasc FAPRI-Ireland model indicates that in the absence of any additional policy measures, suckler cow numbers will continue to fall to 2030. Teagasc modelling for the Climate Change Advisory Committee forecasts that suckler cows are to decline to just 780,000 head by 2030. This would represent a further 20% reduction in suckler cow numbers in the decade from 2020 to 2030.

The already low margins from farming suckler cows will contract further due to increased costs of production that are projected over the medium term to exceed the growth in nominal beef output prices, according to Teagasc.

Appetite for options among farmers

While most farm organisations have welcomed the minister’s decision to scrap the option of a suckler exit scheme, an Irish Farmers Journal survey published in January shows that farmers have some appetite to explore this policy option.

Of over 800 beef farmer respondents, 50% had an interest in reducing production, with 16% saying they would choose to exit if the option of a scheme to do so was available. Half of the respondents indicated an interest in expansion.

The suckler cow sector faces a number of challenges – economic, demographic and climate and environment-related – which will continue to challenge both development and economic sustainability into the future.

It is a key part of the fabric and economy of rural Ireland, particularly the west, which raises concerns about the economic impact of incentivising a contraction of production.

However, data and forecasts indicate that the contraction is well under way. While suckler farmers rightly would prefer options that will deliver improved economic sustainability for current farmers and their successors, it’s unclear outside of a coupled payment what could achieve this.

No policy options have been proposed that would sufficiently improve margins and economic sustainability to halt or indeed reverse this decline.

On that basis, a suckler exit scheme does appear to have merit within the suite of voluntary measures available to farmers.

Inclusion of this option would not necessarily have to rule out other options that could deliver increased margins to those remaining.

However, providing compensation to dairy farmers to exit production and not affording the same opportunity to suckler farmers while the sector is actively contracting would appear wholly inequitable.