Futures prices continue their volatile behaviour as weather and currency continue to drive up and down movement in markets. On balance, last week was down, driven mainly by lower US prices, which were partly caused by higher wheat output estimates. A stronger dollar helped offset some of the fall in euro terms and so the MATIF reaction was smaller.

But there is a growing acceptance that carryover stocks are likely to decline after next harvest and this is helping to limit the downside on prices, driven also by the expectation that the Russian wheat crop will be lower. But the expectation is now for somewhat better prospects from the EU harvest so this must play out still.

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Physical markets continue to be stubborn and resilient, showing little signs of movement in either direction due to the very small amount of business being done by sellers or buyers. So it might best be described as stubbornly firm.

Native prices are again broadly similar to last week, with wheat at €183 to €188/t, but barley is so scarce now that it is irrelevant. That said, there is nothing selling below €198/t. New-crop prices remain either side of €180/t for wheat, with barley even more uncertain as to whether it should be equal to, below or above wheat.

Delivered prices in the UK finished higher by £1.50 to £3.00/t last week and active demand helped rise ex-farm wheat prices there by £4.30/t to £152/t, while barley was back £1.60 to £141.40/t.

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