Wheat prices fell over the passed few days and there are most likely a number of factors playing into this from talks on Black Sea grain exports to rain in areas where crops needed it.
On Friday 1 September, Matif wheat for December finished at €235/t - down €8.25/t in a week. On Tuesday, it had dropped to €233.50/t and was in the green moving slightly upwards on Wednesday afternoon.
Wheat supply around the world looks to be tight. For example, Australian wheat production was forecast down by 0.83m tonnes in recent days to 25.4m tonnes, the smallest crop since 2019/2020 and exports from the country are expected to be down.
Australia had received more rain in recent years due to a La Nina weather event, but dryness has returned.
Argentina received rain in recent days, which, according to reports, is helping its wheat crop and may result in earlier maize plantings.
On Monday, Reuters reported that Turkish president Tayyip Erdogan said that the Black Sea grain initiative could be restored.
Markets will keep a close eye on any movements of grain from this region.
However, maize supplies are ample and this will most likely stop prices from moving up significantly.
A big crop is due from Brazil and while crop condition declined in the US, it is better than this time last year.
Hot and dry weather is having an effect on US crops at present.
Many farmers have planted or continue to plant oilseed rape for the coming season.
At planting, it may be worth locking in some of that rape at a price that you’re happy to sell at.
Paris rapeseed for November 2023 closed at €455.75/t on Tuesday.
This was a big drop from Friday, when it closed the week at €473.50/t.
There was no trading in the US on Monday due to Labor Day and this may have caused some of this drop.
Palm oil futures also dropped, which would affect the rapeseed market.
Looking ahead to 2024 and August 2024 rapeseed (Matif) was at €469/t on Wednesday afternoon, while November rapeseed was at €475/t.
At home there is little trading in the market, according to reports. November prices for wheat and barley are at about €235/t and €225/t respectively. Meanwhile, new-crop maize is higher at €250/t.
Merchants are paying out at present and farmers can look for money on account if final prices are not yet settled.
All prices reported are dried prices.