Market uncertainty and price volatility continue to impact on grain prices. This has seen prices slide, rise and slide once again in the past week. While the market wants to believe that global grain output will be high, nervousness over this sentiment continues to keep the market volatile.

The major downward price drivers are sentiment with regard to a big global harvest coupled with the belief that prices will have to fall to buy demand. But there is also uncertainty with regard to global maize production.

I note that US farmers are very concerned about a portion of their crops (both maize and soyabean), while another portion looks excellent. But the balancing of these two sentiments does not make for a high average.

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So grain prices remain under pressure for the moment, with harvest pressure evident in all markets. Prices increased earlier this week on the back of concerns over US maize crops standing in water for weeks on end, while maize in parts of Europe is suffering from a combination of very high temperatures and drought. But the spike was short-lived and all of the gain was lost within two days.

This is obviously impacting on local price sentiment also. With so much nervousness and lack of real demand, the trade is talking about dry prices in the order of €165/t for barley and €180/t for wheat. These prices are now broadly the same for spot and November positions due to harvest pressure. The quotes from the main buyers have dried up due to the low price levels. However, some merchants, especially in the midlands, are currently offering between €138 and €142/t at 20% for large volumes of grain off farm.