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Both the Ulster Farmers’ Union (UFU) and the National Farmers Union of Scotland (NFUS) have told the Irish Farmers Journal of their growing concerns as the clock ticks towards a no-deal Brexit.
With the vote on the withdrawal agreement pushed back to the middle of January, and with little certainty of it being passed by the UK Parliament, the risk of a no-deal Brexit increases.
While the majority of MPs aren’t in favour of a no-deal scenario, there is no other solution at present which appears to command the support of Parliament.
The reason no-deal is such an issue for farmers is that it means trade on World Trade Organisation (WTO) terms.
As a third country, UK trade to the EU27 would then be subject to particularly penal tariffs for agricultural produce.
In Northern Ireland (NI) that will impact milk and lamb, which go to the Republic of Ireland for processing; as well as beef and lamb sales from NI factories to the continent.
For Scotland, beef and lamb exports to the continent will be damaged.
But the other real fear is that the UK will decide to pursue a low-tariff policy on imports, allowing low-cost competitors access to the high-value British market.
NFU Scotland president, Andrew McCornick
“A no-deal Brexit would be catastrophic for all of Scotland’s farmers, including the red meat sector which relies heavily on frictionless trade.
“It would mean the UK becoming a third country overnight, bringing in hard borders and the WTO default being imposed.
“Third country status would put the UK on the same trading basis with Europe as any other country in the world.
"If Scotland did not have free access to the EU, then exporters of red meat would face tariff rates of 92% on whole beef carcases, 45% on a lamb carcase and 53% on a pig carcase.
"These tariffs don’t include any additional cost of export certification, and any costs associated with potentially lengthy delays at ports.
“There is also the threat that a no-deal with Europe may see a knee-jerk reaction from the UK government and ‘panic deals’ with third parties, like the US, Mercosur, Canada and the Antipodes. That would threaten the industry leading high standards which Scottish farmers produce to.”
UFU president, Ivor Ferguson
“A no-deal Brexit is a very risky outcome and would have disastrous consequences for farming in NI.
"They would face up to 90% tariffs on exports and unfair competition in the UK market from lower-standard food products imported from outside Europe.
“Two independent reports from the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute (AFBI) and the Livestock and Meat Commission (LMC) have both highlighted the dangerous vulnerability of agriculture to a no-deal result.
"The AFBI report in particular highlighted the negative impact of losing the French lamb market if we were to default to a WTO relationship with the EU.
“A no-deal Brexit would put the UK over a cliff edge, and would effectively mean the closure of export markets, which no one wants to see happen.”
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