The unusually mild and wet weather seen in October and well into November is projected for the autumns to come, Met Éireann climatologist Paul Moore said.
Moore warned the impact of climate change will see these conditions continue with water and soil temperatures set to stay at higher-than-average temperatures into the back of each year.
“It’s been the 17th month in a row where the average temperatures in Ireland have been above average,” he said.
His colleague, meteorologist Emer Flood described how daytime temperatures of 16-17°C seen last week were 7°C above the norm for this time of year.
Flood said that the “really mild temperatures are localised over Ireland” and some of the UK. She described how winds are “tracking up very mild air masses” from further south with a “plume of very mild air”.
Irish nighttime temperatures are increasing at a faster rate than those seen during daylight hours, said Moore.
“We’re trending generally above average, more so at night.
“The warm nights are increasing at faster rates than the day times. We’ve only had one air frost so far this year, in October when it was -0.3°C,” he said.
The idea of global warming having an impact far from home is quashed by Met Éireann’s analysis with Moore indicating that “European temperatures are increasing at more than twice the global average”.
The climatologist said that Irish sea surface temperatures are also up 1°C with soil temperatures “heading in that direction”.
Winter cereal crops are struggling in wet conditions at present as rainfall levels are almost double the average for the time of year.
Large patches are missing in cereal crops across the country.
Rainfall that is double normal levels in some areas has caused crops to disappear and some have failed to emerge in wet areas of fields.
Crop sown at the end of September and early October appear to be coping well with current weather conditions, but crops sown before the break in weather in mid-October are struggling in many areas.
Crows are also causing trouble in later sown crops. The majority of farmers have given up on hopes of planting as land is saturated. However, some have made it out with drills in recent days in the northeast of the country.
Winter crop area is expected to be back significantly compared to 2022 as a result of the poor sowing conditions.
To put some of these conditions in perspective, rainfall levels in Oak Park, Co Carlow hit 306.3mm in September and October 2022, compared to 152.1mm in the same months in 2021 and 153.6mm for the same period in 2020. The long-term average for the time of year in Oak Park is 162.5mm.
- Siobhán Walsh