We now know the CAP programme proposals and we’re pretty sure that the sectoral target for agriculture will be a 21% to 30% cut to carbon emissions, so has the fog around the future cleared?

Not really.

The sectoral target for agriculture will require cuts in the national herd, or it might not, depending on whether you are listening to the Climate Change Advisory Council or Charlie McConalogue.

The CAP budget co-funding has been increased from 47% to 60%, or it’s only been increased to 50%, depending on whether you include the carbon tax fund. It’s a bit of a Schrödinger’s cat situation.

Schrödinger moved to Ireland in 1939 and lived and worked here for 17 years, so there is an Irish link

Schrödinger was a scientist and philosopher who stated that if a cat is in a sealed box, it can be both alive and dead.

This was a thought experiment relating to quantum mechanics.

Schrödinger moved to Ireland in 1939 and lived and worked here for 17 years, so there is an Irish link.

And what has this to do with current events around CAP and sectoral targets? Up to now, while the proposals were still in gestation, and remained in the box, they could be all things to all people. The cat is now mostly out of the box.

So why are we now hearing that CRISS has to be at 10%, that it is mandatory at that level?

In June, Minister McConalogue responded to the final outcome of the CAP negotiations by saying he was satisfied that he had secured the necessary flexibility for Irish farming to decide what CAP it wanted from 2023 to 2027.

So why are we now hearing that CRISS has to be at 10%, that it is mandatory at that level? The Department modelled CRISS at both 5% and 10% in August, so it would be interesting to know exactly when the 5% option was taken off the table by Brussels.

Redundant

Similarly, eco schemes are mandatory at 25%, the minister is saying, making the IFA’s calls for 20% eco schemes redundant.

This leaves the only flexibility the minister secured relating to direct payments to be around two elements.

Maximum payments could be anywhere between €66,000 and €100,000, and we have plumped for the lowest possible figure of €66,000. This measure will only affect a couple of hundred of the 120,000 direct payment recipients, although it will affect some of them deeply.

Convergence can be anywhere between 85% and 100%. Minister McConalogue is adamant that he is opting for the least disruptive 85% option, and that it will be delivered in four equal steps between 2023 and 2026. However, we don’t know exactly how this will play out at this stage.

That cat is still in the box.