Every week, it is estimated that 1.3 million people move into a city around the world. This is 68 million people per year or the equivalent of creating a city of the population of Dublin every week.

In 1950, less than one-third (30%) of the global population lived in an urban centre. In the intervening years, people have migrated towards the urban centres and, today, more than half (54%) of the world’s population now reside in an urban area. This process of urbanisation is set to continue over the coming years and it is projected that two-thirds (66%) of the global population will live in urban centres by 2050.

Today, the most urbanised regions are North America, with 82% of the population living in cities, Latin America/Caribbean (80% in cities) and Europe, where 73% of the population live in urban areas.

In contrast, Africa and Asia remain mostly rural, with 40% and 48% of their respective populations living in urban centres. The global rural population is close to 3.4 billion, with 90% of these people situated in Africa and Asia.

Naturally, the future increases in global urbanisation will be led by these regions. By 2050, the UN estimates the urban population in Africa and Asia will have increased to 56% and 64%, respectively. In fact, just three countries – India, China and Nigeria – are expected to account for 37% of the projected growth of the world’s urban population between now and 2050.

The rise of the mega cities

In 1990, there were just 10 megacities (urban areas with greater than 10 million inhabitants) which were home to 153 million people. Today there are 28 boasting a collective population of 453 million. And it is projected that, by 2030, there will be 41. In the past, these megacities were predominantly found in the more developed regions of the world, but today’s are concentrated in Asia and South America.

While Tokyo is the world’s largest city with 38 million inhabitants, China holds the title of having the most megacities. It has five, including Shanghai (24 million) and Beijing (21 million). This compares with three in India, two in the US, Japan, and Brazil, and one in 14 other countries. China also has 14 cities with over 5 million people, whereas the US has eight, India seven, Japan and Brazil three, and 31 other countries have one. This means China has a fifth of the world’s five-million-person cities. It also has 41 cities of over two million people, along with over 100 built up areas of over one million people.

Impact

As urban areas expand, the way that people live in cities is changing. As the cost of space increases, the average size of apartments will continue to get smaller. With less space, decisions have to be made about the critical facilities incorporated into a home. With a fully equipped kitchen being space intensive, urban homes are often being developed with little more than a basic kitchenette.

In addition, many urban dwellers are increasingly time poor, as they split their time between commuting, working and socialising with family and friends. This brings significant implications for the way people will buy and consume food in cities in the future, demanding more innovation in food.

Less ability to prepare and cook food will mean that more people will buy processed and prepared food products, as well as eating out more often.

The increase in demand for processed and ready-to-eat products in emerging markets will result in a shift towards formal retail channels and away from wet markets, as consumers place a greater emphasis on food safety.

A further consequence of more people living in cities is the deterioration in the environment – notably air and water pollution. This will create an increased demand for healthy and nutritious food, placing a strong focus on innovative fruit and vegetables that are easy to consume and can deliver proven health benefits.

At the same time, consumers will be demanding a greater variety of choices reflecting the wide mix of ethnicities in a city’s population. But perhaps the greatest effect of people moving to the city will be their access to westernised food.

With more disposable income, they will be introduced to new categories that were not traditional in rural areas. It may be through these already strong global brands that Irish agrifood companies have the greatest opportunity to penetrate these highly competitive markets.

Read more from this year's KPMG/Irish Farmers Journal Agribusiness report here.