Title: Managing director.
Company: SovEcon, a Russian grain markets research firm.
Russian wheat production: 78.9m tonnes (2017).
2018 forecast: 78m tonnes.
Russian wheat exports: 38.3m tonnes (2017-2018 season).
Will Russia produce another bumper wheat crop this year?
Russian wheat production for 2018 is forecast at 78m tonnes. But I still have concerns. We’ve had a late spring in Russia, although it has not been an issue yet. If the cold weather continues it may threaten spring sowings. Last year, Russian wheat had record yields, meaning there could be a lack of nutrients in soils. When you have high yields, soils can get exhausted.
What is this year’s winter wheat crop looking like?
We had a very mild winter in Russia this year. Winter crops are starting to vegetate and look better than last year’s crop, especially in important growing regions like Krasnodar and Stavropol. We estimate winter kill losses from this year’s winter wheat crop will be less than 5%. This is below the average of 6% to 7%.
What acreage have Russian farmers planted in wheat this season?
Russian wheat plantings for 2018 have fallen slightly. The area planted in winter wheat is 14.5m ha, which is down from 14.9m ha last season. Spring wheat plantings in 2018 are forecast at 12.7m ha – down from 13m ha last year.
The bad price of wheat is incentivising farmers to switch to more profitable crops such as maize, barley and sunflowers.
How are wheat prices in Russia?
Farmers are not happy with wheat prices today. In southern Russia, where wheat is sold for export, prices are only slightly lower than last season at $207/t to $208/t. But in non-export regions, wheat prices have fallen 20% to 30% to $136/t. For these farmers, prices are close to breakeven.
Will Russian wheat exports rise?
Russian wheat exports for the 2017-2018 season will be a record 38.3m tonnes. Russia is now the world’s largest wheat exporter and accounts for about 20% of world trade. Egypt is Russia’s largest export market, followed by Turkey and Bangladesh. Indonesia is also becoming a very strong market for us.
How large are Russian wheat stocks?
Despite record levels of exports, year-ending wheat stocks will be 20m tonnes, compared to season-beginning stocks of 14m tonnes. With another big wheat crop of 78m tonnes forecast this season, it suggests Russia will remain aggressive in wheat export markets throughout the 2018-2019 season.
Is export infrastructure under pressure in Russia?
Infrastructure has been the number one bottleneck for wheat exports this season. Total grain and oilseed exports from Russia currently stand at 50m tonnes. But exports could easily reach 55m to 60m tonnes if there were more ports and grain terminals. Investment in new grain terminals, rail cars and grain storage infrastructure is starting to flow. In three to four years, there should be an additional 5m to 7m tonnes of annual export capacity in Russia.
Read more
How Russia built a wheat empire
Title: Managing director.
Company: SovEcon, a Russian grain markets research firm.
Russian wheat production: 78.9m tonnes (2017).
2018 forecast: 78m tonnes.
Russian wheat exports: 38.3m tonnes (2017-2018 season).
Will Russia produce another bumper wheat crop this year?
Russian wheat production for 2018 is forecast at 78m tonnes. But I still have concerns. We’ve had a late spring in Russia, although it has not been an issue yet. If the cold weather continues it may threaten spring sowings. Last year, Russian wheat had record yields, meaning there could be a lack of nutrients in soils. When you have high yields, soils can get exhausted.
What is this year’s winter wheat crop looking like?
We had a very mild winter in Russia this year. Winter crops are starting to vegetate and look better than last year’s crop, especially in important growing regions like Krasnodar and Stavropol. We estimate winter kill losses from this year’s winter wheat crop will be less than 5%. This is below the average of 6% to 7%.
What acreage have Russian farmers planted in wheat this season?
Russian wheat plantings for 2018 have fallen slightly. The area planted in winter wheat is 14.5m ha, which is down from 14.9m ha last season. Spring wheat plantings in 2018 are forecast at 12.7m ha – down from 13m ha last year.
The bad price of wheat is incentivising farmers to switch to more profitable crops such as maize, barley and sunflowers.
How are wheat prices in Russia?
Farmers are not happy with wheat prices today. In southern Russia, where wheat is sold for export, prices are only slightly lower than last season at $207/t to $208/t. But in non-export regions, wheat prices have fallen 20% to 30% to $136/t. For these farmers, prices are close to breakeven.
Will Russian wheat exports rise?
Russian wheat exports for the 2017-2018 season will be a record 38.3m tonnes. Russia is now the world’s largest wheat exporter and accounts for about 20% of world trade. Egypt is Russia’s largest export market, followed by Turkey and Bangladesh. Indonesia is also becoming a very strong market for us.
How large are Russian wheat stocks?
Despite record levels of exports, year-ending wheat stocks will be 20m tonnes, compared to season-beginning stocks of 14m tonnes. With another big wheat crop of 78m tonnes forecast this season, it suggests Russia will remain aggressive in wheat export markets throughout the 2018-2019 season.
Is export infrastructure under pressure in Russia?
Infrastructure has been the number one bottleneck for wheat exports this season. Total grain and oilseed exports from Russia currently stand at 50m tonnes. But exports could easily reach 55m to 60m tonnes if there were more ports and grain terminals. Investment in new grain terminals, rail cars and grain storage infrastructure is starting to flow. In three to four years, there should be an additional 5m to 7m tonnes of annual export capacity in Russia.
Read more
How Russia built a wheat empire
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