Data released by the US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF) for beef and pork exports in February show a decline for both categories.

Pork exports were down 4% to 241,179 tonnes compared with the same month last year and the volume for the first two months of the year combined was 3% lower at 485,144t.

The value for February pork exports was down 2% to $1.34bn (€1.23bn) compared with the same month last year.

Beef exports for February recorded an even bigger fall, with the volume down 5.5% compared with February 2024 to 98,198t.

The overall value of beef exports for the month also fell, down 4% to $800m (€734m).

USMEF commentary

Mexico and Central American countries were singled out by the USMEF president for their “tremendous demand” in his commentary on the results, as was Canada, where “demand for US beef has been very robust to start the year”.

Both Mexico and Canada were the first targets for US import tariffs, though their implementation hasn’t followed through to the extent originally announced.

The growth in pork exports to China could have been higher, but for the uncertainty over factory license renewals and a warning was flagged in the case of beef exports to China for March as beef licenses have yet to be renewed.

Markets

Mexico is in the spotlight for pork exports, as February was the seventh month in a row where the value exceeded $200m.

While volume for February actually dipped slightly, when combined with January 2025 export volumes are up 1% at 197,680t on last year's record volumes for the same period.

Volumes to China were up 5% in February to 38,492t, but there is concern that the first tariff increase, which came into effect in March, will have a negative impact going forward.

The most disappointing performance in February was from South Korea and Japan, two of the consistently stable US export markets for pork.

Volumes to South Korea were down 18% compared with February last year to 34,332t, while exports to Japan were down 19% year on year to 45,680t.

Beef exports

Beef exports to South Korea increased by 1% in February to 18,540t, but volumes to Japan were down 8% to 38,163t.

Mexico remains the second-biggest market in February, despite a 7% drop in volume to 37,269t, while China, the other major market for US beef exports, recorded a 15% decline in volumes to 15,415t.

Given the factory licensing problems and two rounds of increased tariffs, the prognosis for this market isn’t good for the immediate future unless there is a resolution to these issues.

Comment – turbulence has just started

Much has happened since February in the US, with the tariff position in the US changing almost daily in recent times.

The current level of retaliatory tariffs introduced by China has effectively closed out imports of US meat and the trade relationship between the US and their largest trading partners of Mexico and Canada are also fraught at present.

US beef and pork exports are among the most vulnerable category of US export products to retaliatory tariffs by trading partners.

A pause in tariffs at 10% for 90 days was announced on Wednesday, but further changes are likely to lie ahead. What happens next is far from certain.