UK shoppers spent 10% more on beef purchases in the 12 weeks to 2 November, but they got 10% less beef when compared to the same period last year, according to Worldpanel by Numerator UK data published by AHDB, the levy board in England. This is explained by the fact that average beef price has increased by 18.8% over the last year.

Sales of primary beef cuts were hardest hit down by 5,836t, or 11.7%, to 51,200t during this period. Mince, the most popular category of beef, accounted for 3,671t of this decline with total sales down to 30,600t. The lower volume categories also show a sharp decline in percentage terms, with sales of roasts down 21.2% to 5,300t. AHDB analysis suggests that this “was driven by a combination of a reduction in shopper numbers, as well as a reduction in volumes purchased per buyer, likely due to shoppers noticing the 37.1% increase in average price, the greatest increase of the beef category”.

Imports

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Notwithstanding a couple of exceptions in recent months, UK supermarkets offer only British and Irish beef to their shoppers. However, the fall in both UK and Irish beef production has meant a relative scarcity of supply particularly in channels outside the retail trade. This has created an opportunity for other exporting countries. Among these has been Australia, which has had the benefit of tariff-free entry for its beef to the UK since June 2023.

As Figure 1 shows, volumes have grown significantly in recent months, with Australian beef exports to the UK up 341t in October to 2,067t.

While the figures for New Zealand beef exports to the UK aren’t available for October yet, their trend has also been upwards over recent months. It should be noted that this sharp increase is coming from a very low base in the case of both Australia and New Zealand and even 2,000t/month is still a small figure in the context of overall UK beef imports.