The latest Worldpanel by Numerator UK data, published by AHDB, shows that there was a small 1% decline in beef purchase volumes in the 12 weeks to 12 May 2026 but shoppers spent 6.3% more buying beef during this period because the average price was 7.4% higher.

The biggest fall was in the mince category, with volumes down 1,340 tonnes or 4.5% year on year. AHDB analysis attributes this to “a decrease in volumes purchased per trip and number of buyers, due to the 11.9% average price increase”.

There was more positive news on the sale of beef steaks and diced beef. Both these categories increased their volume of sales, up by 9.1% and 10.5% respectively. The driver for these increased sales was an increase in the number of buyers who bought more product per trip and in the case of diced beef, shoppers also bought it more often.

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Interestingly, average steak prices were marginally lower during this 12-week period than they were during the same period last year, with the average price down by 0.6% to £21.07/kg (€24.50/kg). Diced beef was 5.5% more expensive at £12.01/kg (€13.96/kg).

Lamb sales

It was a similar situation with lamb in the twelve weeks to 12 July. Shoppers bought 1.4% less lamb overall but increased their spend by 5.9% because average lamb retail price increased by 7.4%. Lamb leg roasts sales showed a particularly sharp decline, down 31.8% or 631 tonnes during this quarter compared with the same period last year. The shopper spend on lamb leg roasts was also down, falling by 24.3% as the average price increased by 11% to £12.98/kg (€15.09/kg). Processed lamb sales also fell, down 3.8%, caused by fewer buyers for grills and burgers.

Pig meat sales

Retail pig meat sales were weaker for both volume and value in the 12 weeks to 12 July. Overall volume sales were down by 2.4% in volume and spend also fell, down by 1.3% with the prices paid an average 1.2% higher.

Pork roasts increased their volume sales by 3.9% and pork mince sales jumped by 25.9% which is an additional 1,041 tonnes, driven by an increase in buyers and their frequency of purchase

There was a big contrast in the performance of the different pig meat types bout by retail shoppers. Pork roasts increased their volume sales by 3.9% and pork mince sales jumped by 25.9% which is an additional 1,041 tonnes, driven by an increase in buyers and their frequency of purchase.

It was the processed pig meat category that recorded the decline in volumes sold. Sales of bacon rashers were down 4.7%, sliced cooked meats fell by 6.3% and sausages fell by 3.2%. AHDB suggest that the decline in these categories could be a consumer “shrift away from more ultra processed foods”.

Comment

The UK retail market is hugely important for Irish beef exports, less so for pig meat and sheep meat. Pig meat has global options while sheep meat exporters now prioritise continental markets ahead of the UK where Australian and New Zealand supplies now dominate their imported sheep meat market. They have also increased their beef exports to the UK but don’t feature in the retailers beef offering which is based on British and Irish beef. It will be reassuring for Irish farmers that the decline in volumes bought by British shoppers has slowed down though interestingly prices have continued to increase as supermarkets focus on margins from the category.