The recovery in US beef exports recorded in October 2025 proved to be short lived.
November data, published by the US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF) shows a decline in November volumes of 19% to 88,139 tonnes compared with November 2024.
For the year to the end of November, US beef export volumes were down 12% to 1.04m tonnes, with the value down by 11% to $8.52bn (€7.22bn).
One word, China, largely explains the big fall in US beef exports in the second half of 2025.
Sales to that country have collapsed and the main cause isn’t tariffs, it is unwillingness by the Chinese authorities to renew import permits for US beef exporters as they expire.
This issue first became apparent in March 2025 ahead of tariff changes and the effect has been a month-on-month decline of beef exports to China from the US.
In November, just 6,406 tonnes of beef was exported to China, just over one third of the volume that was sent in November the previous year.
For the year to date, US beef exports to China were 102,934 tonnes, down 48% on the 196,437 tonnes exported in the same period in 2024.
Mexico was the third largest export market for US beef in November but it too recorded a decline compared with November the previous year falling by 13% to 16,390 tonnes.
The overall effect of this on US beef exports is huge. While overall US beef exports for the year to date are down 12%, if China is excluded from this figure, the overall decline is just 3% year-on-year.
Other markets
Even though the drop in sales to China is the big issue, other export markets also struggled in November and in 2025 in general. There was a particularly sharp fall in export volumes to South Korea in November, down by 20% to 17,258 tonnes.
Despite this, US beef exports to the country are up by 1% for the year to the end of November at 211,665 tonnes.
Exports to Japan were down 1% to 18,108 tonnes though the value was 5% lower at $138.5 (€117.4m).
For the year to the end of November the volume was down by 2% to 219,329 tonnes.
Mexico was the third largest export market for US beef in November but it too recorded a decline compared with November the previous year falling by 13% to 16,390 tonnes.
Overall in 2025 to the end of November, the volume was down 11% to 189,276 tonnes.
UK and EU
Europe continues to be an insignificant market in the overall context of US beef exports.
However, there has been some growth in volumes to the UK following the agreement of a reciprocal tariff free 13,200 tonnes quota between the countries.
Up to the end of November, US beef exports to the UK were a still modest 2,216 tonnes but this represents a 23% increase on the same period the previous year.
As for the EU, the volume exported to the end of November was 10,357 tonnes, which is down on the 11,275 tonnes exported in the same period in 2024.
The EU remains a minor market for US beef exports, despite the US having a 35,000t tariff free quota to the EU.
Comment: falling exports reflect falling cattle supply
While the US remains the world’s third largest beef exporter, cattle supply has become a problem for their processing industry and beef exports.
Aside from the difficulty with China, US beef exports have been under pressure in all their main export markets. This is unlikely to change much in the coming year as cattle supply remains tight and trade policy is fluid.
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The recovery in US beef exports recorded in October 2025 proved to be short lived.
November data, published by the US Meat Exporters Federation (USMEF) shows a decline in November volumes of 19% to 88,139 tonnes compared with November 2024.
For the year to the end of November, US beef export volumes were down 12% to 1.04m tonnes, with the value down by 11% to $8.52bn (€7.22bn).
One word, China, largely explains the big fall in US beef exports in the second half of 2025.
Sales to that country have collapsed and the main cause isn’t tariffs, it is unwillingness by the Chinese authorities to renew import permits for US beef exporters as they expire.
This issue first became apparent in March 2025 ahead of tariff changes and the effect has been a month-on-month decline of beef exports to China from the US.
In November, just 6,406 tonnes of beef was exported to China, just over one third of the volume that was sent in November the previous year.
For the year to date, US beef exports to China were 102,934 tonnes, down 48% on the 196,437 tonnes exported in the same period in 2024.
Mexico was the third largest export market for US beef in November but it too recorded a decline compared with November the previous year falling by 13% to 16,390 tonnes.
The overall effect of this on US beef exports is huge. While overall US beef exports for the year to date are down 12%, if China is excluded from this figure, the overall decline is just 3% year-on-year.
Other markets
Even though the drop in sales to China is the big issue, other export markets also struggled in November and in 2025 in general. There was a particularly sharp fall in export volumes to South Korea in November, down by 20% to 17,258 tonnes.
Despite this, US beef exports to the country are up by 1% for the year to the end of November at 211,665 tonnes.
Exports to Japan were down 1% to 18,108 tonnes though the value was 5% lower at $138.5 (€117.4m).
For the year to the end of November the volume was down by 2% to 219,329 tonnes.
Mexico was the third largest export market for US beef in November but it too recorded a decline compared with November the previous year falling by 13% to 16,390 tonnes.
Overall in 2025 to the end of November, the volume was down 11% to 189,276 tonnes.
UK and EU
Europe continues to be an insignificant market in the overall context of US beef exports.
However, there has been some growth in volumes to the UK following the agreement of a reciprocal tariff free 13,200 tonnes quota between the countries.
Up to the end of November, US beef exports to the UK were a still modest 2,216 tonnes but this represents a 23% increase on the same period the previous year.
As for the EU, the volume exported to the end of November was 10,357 tonnes, which is down on the 11,275 tonnes exported in the same period in 2024.
The EU remains a minor market for US beef exports, despite the US having a 35,000t tariff free quota to the EU.
Comment: falling exports reflect falling cattle supply
While the US remains the world’s third largest beef exporter, cattle supply has become a problem for their processing industry and beef exports.
Aside from the difficulty with China, US beef exports have been under pressure in all their main export markets. This is unlikely to change much in the coming year as cattle supply remains tight and trade policy is fluid.
Read more
US cattle numbers fall to 75 year low
More roadblocks in trade with China
US carcase weights hit all-time average high of 398kg in 2025
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