This is a subscriber-only article
EU consumers are expected to be eating around 8% less beef by the end of the decade as the annual consumption of all meats will drop 1.5kg to 66kg per person, the European Commission has forecast.
Commission agriculture analyst Benjamin van Doorslaer told the EU agricultural outlook conference that Europe is “a little bit strange” as per-capita demand for meat is rising in all other regions, including developed countries like the US.
Worldwide demand is predicted to increase substantially, with the entirety of the EU’s current meat production to be added on top of existing demand by 2032.
The analyst said changing consumer preferences will result from a higher sustainability perception of non-meat protein sources and this will dampen the demand for beef and pork.
A falling population is expected to further lower the volumes of meat needed to keep the EU fed, while aging populations in member states will lead to meat portion sizes shrinking.
Chicken is the only meat for which the EU expects to see a higher consumer appetite.
“The consumer finds it easier [to cook] than for other meats and as well, price plays a role. It is one of the cheapest meats,” van Doorslaer said.
“In pigmeat, we see clearly a steady decline in consumption and a similar pattern for beef. On the other hand, poultry is taking over a part of the consumption of red meat.
“Sheep and goat has already gone down and is at such a low level that we don’t expect it to go even further down.”
Religious impacts
Changes to Europe’s religious makeup will have implications for the consumption of different types of meat.
The Commission official said there are “religious disadvantages” with pork but that these drawbacks are not seen with chicken.
Religious change is expected to have a positive impact on the demand for sheep, a meat that was said to be “very much related to religious festivities” which should cushion the meat from a fall in demand.
However, as sheep and goat consumption have fallen over the past few decades, overall volumes demanded in the EU will remain far smaller than those of the other meat options available on shelves and menus.
Disease
The EU analyst went on to say that animal diseases are expected to play a role in changing which meats end up on EU consumers’ plates and could have “a lot of implications for trade”.
Avian influenza has become a disease with the potential to affect poultry suppliers year-round instead of just the winter, as had been the case until this year’s highly pathogenic outbreak.
African swine fever was characterised as being now “endemic in some EU regions” and having the potential to lower pigmeat consumption.
Meat alternatives
There is growing interest in meat alternatives but EU consumers are eating less than 300g per year of these proteins, according to OECD policy analyst Clara Frezal.
“When we talk about meat alternatives, we talk about this new generation of processed products that aim to mimic meat in technical and nutritional properties,” Frezal said.
The OECD analyst explained that there are three categories of meat alternatives, products processed from plants, those made from insects and those grown in labs from animal cells.
Consumer acceptance of meat alternatives is lower than it is for meat, with the two latter options prompting reactions which include “fear” and “disgust” among buyers, she told the conference.
SHARING OPTIONS: