Brazil’s beef industry exported 2.89m tonnes product weight worth $12.8bn (€11bn) in 2024, an increase of 50% over the past five years and a contribution to the economy worth 8.4% of GDP.
The national commercial cattle herd is estimated at 194m and a record 46m cattle were processed in 2024, a 9.5% increase compared with 2023.
This yielded beef production of 11.8m tonnes carcase weight equivalent, also a record.
Beef represented 42% of the value in Brazil’s agriculture exports followed by chicken, which accounted for 31% of the value with pork third on just under 10%. Almost 32% of Brazil’s beef production is exported.
This is revealed in Beef Report 2025 which is published by ABIEC, the trade association that represent beef processors.
The publication reveals several insights into the expansion of Brazil’s beef export industry over the past two decades and provides a forecast for the decade ahead.
Further expansion
Figure 1 shows that Brazil’s cattle population increased by 19m head over the past twenty years and the forecast is that it will grow by a further 9m head in the years up to 2032.
The forecast for 2034 puts the total cattle population at 201.2m, 2.6m less than the peak forecast for 2032 but over 7m head more than it is today.
To put that in context, the total Irish cattle herd is 6.9m which is fewer than the number the Brazilian herd is forecast to increase by in the next decade.
Markets
China was by far their biggest export market in 2024, taking over 1.3m tonnes of beef at a value of $6bn (€5.2bn).
The United States was a long way back in second place, taking 229,808 tones which was worth $1.351bn (€1.16bn) while there was another step back to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in third place on 132, 683 tonnes with a value of S604.9m (€521.5m).
The EU was just behind the UAE for value in fourth place at $602.8m (€519.6m) but interestingly it was only the nineth largest market on volume taking 82,323 tonnes. This reflects the fact that Brazil exports primarily steak meat to the EU market, the highest value part of the carcase.
2025 update
Brazil’s beef exports continued to grow significantly in the first half of this year with the value up 27% at $7.23bn (€6.23bn) and the volume was 13.4% higher at 1.47m tonnes.
All of the major export markets have contributed to this increase but the most spectacular performer in the first half of the year has been the US.
It was worth $1.01bn (€870.7m) and 181,500 tonnes, double the level of the first six months last year and approaching the $1.351bn (€1.16bn) and 229,808 tones total for all of 2024.
This market is now in serious jeopardy following the announcement of an additional 50% tariff on beef imports from Brazil in addition to the 26.4% standard out of quota tariff.
This was due to come into effect on Wednesday this week and ABIEC released a statement in response to President Trump’s 50% tariff announcement saying that it was “compromising the economic viability of exports to the North American market, which imported 229,000 tons in 2024” and forecast “to reach 400,000 tonnes” in 2025.
They are in discussions with their US importers and are “working with the federal government to seek a negotiated solution.” Given the volatile pattern in the introduction, suspension and sometimes deferral of tariffs by the US administration Brazil will be hoping that they are reduced. However, from recent announcements, it is clear that Brazil is along with Canada, India and China at the higher end for tariffs being applied to their exports to the US.
How this matters for Irish farmers
As was the case previously with Brexit, there is a risk of fatigue creeping into the attention we give to what the US are imposing on different trading partners.
There is also a sense of relieve around the EU agreement with the US which is recognised as being better than it might have been from the perspective of Irish agriculture. While this is indeed faint praise, a 15% tariff would be warmly welcomed by Brazilian beef exporters as they are face into a 76% tariff.
At this level, trade becomes virtually impossible despite the fact that cattle prices in Brazil are the lowest of any major beef exporting country in the world.
ABIEC had estimated that the US would have been a 400,000 tonne export market this year but if this higher tariff of over 76% remains in place then further significant exports are unlikely.
That in turn means that Brazil’s beef exporters will be looking for alternative markets and this is where Irish and EU farmers become involved. In June Brazil exported 8,700 tonnes of beef to the EU, a 37% increase on the same month last year, with a value of $73.5m.
Competitive prices
With a farm gate cattle price that is less than half what is currently being paid in Ireland, Europe will be a relatively lucrative market for more beef given the problem with the US. If the Mercosur trade deal is approved in the coming months, it will be even more attractive.
Brazil has been working on securing access to Japan for beef and it is thought that it may be opened before the end of this year.
However, given the rapid expansion in exports to the US over the past two years, it will be difficult to find an alternative particularly with such a short lead in period to prepare.
As well as finding markets immediately for existing production, there is also the question of what happens to the extra production forecast in Brazil over coming years.
Figure 2 shows that Brazil’s beef exports have been on an upward trajectory, reaching 3.8m tonnes carcase weight equivalent and this is forecast to increase year on year to 5.5m tonnes in 2034. Growing demand from China absorbed much of the increase in Brazil’s beef exports over the past decade, but China’s demand for imported beef has levelled off recently.
European and US beef markets have been under-supplied over the past year leading to a big increase in farm gate prices.
The tariffs may squeeze Brazilian beef in the US market which leaves the EU as the most viable option in both the short term and even more so in the longer term if the Mercosur trade deal is ratified.
Brazil’s cattle population to increase by 9m head. Beef exports to increase by 1.75m tonnes. US had been a fast-growing market for Brazilian beef. US jeopardised by a huge 76% import tariff. Exports to EU increasing. Likely to grow further, especially if Mercosur trade deal ratified.
Brazil’s beef industry exported 2.89m tonnes product weight worth $12.8bn (€11bn) in 2024, an increase of 50% over the past five years and a contribution to the economy worth 8.4% of GDP.
The national commercial cattle herd is estimated at 194m and a record 46m cattle were processed in 2024, a 9.5% increase compared with 2023.
This yielded beef production of 11.8m tonnes carcase weight equivalent, also a record.
Beef represented 42% of the value in Brazil’s agriculture exports followed by chicken, which accounted for 31% of the value with pork third on just under 10%. Almost 32% of Brazil’s beef production is exported.
This is revealed in Beef Report 2025 which is published by ABIEC, the trade association that represent beef processors.
The publication reveals several insights into the expansion of Brazil’s beef export industry over the past two decades and provides a forecast for the decade ahead.
Further expansion
Figure 1 shows that Brazil’s cattle population increased by 19m head over the past twenty years and the forecast is that it will grow by a further 9m head in the years up to 2032.
The forecast for 2034 puts the total cattle population at 201.2m, 2.6m less than the peak forecast for 2032 but over 7m head more than it is today.
To put that in context, the total Irish cattle herd is 6.9m which is fewer than the number the Brazilian herd is forecast to increase by in the next decade.
Markets
China was by far their biggest export market in 2024, taking over 1.3m tonnes of beef at a value of $6bn (€5.2bn).
The United States was a long way back in second place, taking 229,808 tones which was worth $1.351bn (€1.16bn) while there was another step back to the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in third place on 132, 683 tonnes with a value of S604.9m (€521.5m).
The EU was just behind the UAE for value in fourth place at $602.8m (€519.6m) but interestingly it was only the nineth largest market on volume taking 82,323 tonnes. This reflects the fact that Brazil exports primarily steak meat to the EU market, the highest value part of the carcase.
2025 update
Brazil’s beef exports continued to grow significantly in the first half of this year with the value up 27% at $7.23bn (€6.23bn) and the volume was 13.4% higher at 1.47m tonnes.
All of the major export markets have contributed to this increase but the most spectacular performer in the first half of the year has been the US.
It was worth $1.01bn (€870.7m) and 181,500 tonnes, double the level of the first six months last year and approaching the $1.351bn (€1.16bn) and 229,808 tones total for all of 2024.
This market is now in serious jeopardy following the announcement of an additional 50% tariff on beef imports from Brazil in addition to the 26.4% standard out of quota tariff.
This was due to come into effect on Wednesday this week and ABIEC released a statement in response to President Trump’s 50% tariff announcement saying that it was “compromising the economic viability of exports to the North American market, which imported 229,000 tons in 2024” and forecast “to reach 400,000 tonnes” in 2025.
They are in discussions with their US importers and are “working with the federal government to seek a negotiated solution.” Given the volatile pattern in the introduction, suspension and sometimes deferral of tariffs by the US administration Brazil will be hoping that they are reduced. However, from recent announcements, it is clear that Brazil is along with Canada, India and China at the higher end for tariffs being applied to their exports to the US.
How this matters for Irish farmers
As was the case previously with Brexit, there is a risk of fatigue creeping into the attention we give to what the US are imposing on different trading partners.
There is also a sense of relieve around the EU agreement with the US which is recognised as being better than it might have been from the perspective of Irish agriculture. While this is indeed faint praise, a 15% tariff would be warmly welcomed by Brazilian beef exporters as they are face into a 76% tariff.
At this level, trade becomes virtually impossible despite the fact that cattle prices in Brazil are the lowest of any major beef exporting country in the world.
ABIEC had estimated that the US would have been a 400,000 tonne export market this year but if this higher tariff of over 76% remains in place then further significant exports are unlikely.
That in turn means that Brazil’s beef exporters will be looking for alternative markets and this is where Irish and EU farmers become involved. In June Brazil exported 8,700 tonnes of beef to the EU, a 37% increase on the same month last year, with a value of $73.5m.
Competitive prices
With a farm gate cattle price that is less than half what is currently being paid in Ireland, Europe will be a relatively lucrative market for more beef given the problem with the US. If the Mercosur trade deal is approved in the coming months, it will be even more attractive.
Brazil has been working on securing access to Japan for beef and it is thought that it may be opened before the end of this year.
However, given the rapid expansion in exports to the US over the past two years, it will be difficult to find an alternative particularly with such a short lead in period to prepare.
As well as finding markets immediately for existing production, there is also the question of what happens to the extra production forecast in Brazil over coming years.
Figure 2 shows that Brazil’s beef exports have been on an upward trajectory, reaching 3.8m tonnes carcase weight equivalent and this is forecast to increase year on year to 5.5m tonnes in 2034. Growing demand from China absorbed much of the increase in Brazil’s beef exports over the past decade, but China’s demand for imported beef has levelled off recently.
European and US beef markets have been under-supplied over the past year leading to a big increase in farm gate prices.
The tariffs may squeeze Brazilian beef in the US market which leaves the EU as the most viable option in both the short term and even more so in the longer term if the Mercosur trade deal is ratified.
Brazil’s cattle population to increase by 9m head. Beef exports to increase by 1.75m tonnes. US had been a fast-growing market for Brazilian beef. US jeopardised by a huge 76% import tariff. Exports to EU increasing. Likely to grow further, especially if Mercosur trade deal ratified. 
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