The Irish Farmers Journal has produced a guide to farm payment entitlements from 2023 to 2027 based on the details of the CAP deal.

It shows the effects of the proposals on a range of payment entitlements, including the current national average of €265/ha.

These entitlements form the basis of each farmer’s direct payment and, when multiplied by a farmer’s claimed area, give their total payment.

The first column shows the current entitlement value including a 30% Greening payment.

The second column shows the contribution of each entitlement to the 25% eco scheme fund. This deduction may prove to be lower if Ireland avails of flexibilities included in the deal.

The convergence model used for those above the average is the same one that was used in the last CAP

This gives an estimated entitlement value for 2023. The national average entitlement will fall to €199/ha, and all entitlements will be 25% less valuable.

The next column estimates the effects of 85% convergence. Payments below 85% of the new national average rise to €170/ha. Those between 85% and 100% see no change while those above have their payments cut to fund the increases.

The convergence model used for those above the average is the same one that was used in the last CAP.

It is assumed that eco schemes are paid at a flat rate of €66/ha

The deductions may be higher or lower depending on the total amount of funds required to bring all entitlements to 85% of the average.

The final two columns gauge the effect of eco schemes.

It is assumed that eco schemes are paid at a flat rate of €66/ha. This figure is calculated by presuming each one of Ireland’s 4.44m entitlements can draw down from the €297m eco scheme fund at an equal rate.

This is likely to be an oversimplification but it is the most robust modelling scenario available at present.

The possible effects of front-loading have been excluded as there are too many unknowns.