Darci Vetter, former chief agricultural negotiator with the US Trade Representative (USTR) spoke to an Irish Farmers Journal webinar this week. From her experience as lead negotiator on agriculture in trade talks, she gave her views on what a change in the presidency might mean for US policy in global trade.

Her view is that if President Trump is re-elected, it will be more of the same confrontational-type approach.

Interestingly, if it is a Biden presidency, her view is that the policy won’t change dramatically but the tone and emphasis will.She envisages that a Biden presidency would look to have trade incorporated into wider foreign policy but would avoid major changes at least in the short term. That includes tariffs.

Darci Vetter on Trump and Biden race.

Rebuilding relationships

Vetter is of a view that China will remain a huge challenge for the US but a Biden presidency would be more inclined to build alliances than a Trump presidency would.

The Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) was a comprehensive trade deal involving 12 countries including the US with the intention of creating a powerful bloc that counterbalanced China in Aisa.

President Trump removed the US from that deal and instead concluded a mini-deal with Japan that basically traded US agriculture for Japanese autos, Vetter explained.

The EU has not yet taken up the opportunity given by WTO to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and a more conciliatory Biden presidency could lead to a quicker resolution

She is also of the view that a Biden presidency would look to rebuild the strained relationship with the EU.

Currently the US is imposing tariffs, including on Irish dairy produce, as a result of a WTO ruling against the EU on support for Airbus, and recently the WTO has ruled against the US for supporting Boeing.

The EU has not yet taken up the opportunity given by WTO to impose retaliatory tariffs on the US, and a more conciliatory Biden presidency could lead to a quicker resolution. If this happened it would be a win for Irish dairy exports, which are currently subject to a 25% tariff because of the Airbus ruling.

UK trade talks

On the trade negotiation with the UK, Vetter believes this is very much political and, in a Biden presidency, much would depend on what progress is made before the present administration ends in January 2021.

Big trade deals are off the menu in the foreseeable future and TTIP

Interestingly, she isn’t of the view that standards would be a deal breaker, explaining that in the case of the WTO ruling against the EU on hormones in beef, the US took the pragmatic approach of accepting a 35,000t tariff free quota even though they won the ruling. Big trade deals are off the menu in the foreseeable future and TTIP, the negotiation with the EU that President Trump pulled out of, is unlikely to be resurrected in the short term.

Darci Vetter.