Global pigmeat production in 2021 is expected to be 4% higher than it was in April at 105m tonnes.
This is mainly due to Chinese production being expected to increase by 8% to 43.8m tonnes as China rebuilds following the decimation of its industry due to African swine fever (ASF), which came into the herd this time three years ago.
Despite recovery in Chinese production, with output now predicted at 43.8m tonnes compared with 40.5m forecast in April
ASF has now become a major problem for the Philippines, where pigmeat production will be 40% lower than normal in 2021, leading to a major supply deficit and corresponding increase in imports.
Global exports for 2021 are revised upwards to 11.8m tonnes, an increase of 2% on USDA/FAS April estimates. Despite recovery in Chinese production, with output now predicted at 43.8m tonnes compared with 40.5m forecast in April, it is still over 10m tonnes lower than production in 2018.
That means Chinese demand for pigmeat imports remains strong, with USDA/FAS revising import demand up to 5m tonnes compared with 4.85m tonnes in April.
There was a delay in imports offsetting loss of domestic production in Philippines last year
The other major change is a revision of Philippines imports upwards by a massive 21% to a record 425,000t, reflecting the gap in supply caused by ASF.
There was a delay in imports offsetting loss of domestic production in Philippines last year due to a weak domestic economy and tariff barriers.
These have been temporarily lowered in 2021 and quotas have been increased.
The largest change to export forecasts by USDA /FAS between April and July is in the US, where volume exported was revised upwards by 137,000t to 3.426m tonnes.
The EU export forecast for 2021 was revised upwards by 50,000t since April to 4.450m tonnes, while the export forecast for Canada was revised upwards by 30,000t to 1.560m tonnes and Brazil by 25,000t to 1.275m tonnes.
Irish pigmeat exports
Last week’s Bord Bia midyear market webinar heard that Irish pig throughput at factories was running 11% higher so far this year compared with the same period in 2019. The volume of Irish pigmeat exports in the first four months of 2021 was up 9% to 92,000t. China was the main market, taking 46% of Irish pigmeat exports.