Following the high-profile engagements by the Irish Government with the French President and German Chancellor, it is the turn of the chief Brexit negotiator, Michel Barnier to visit Dublin today. With just four days to go until the revised Brexit date, much of the EU focus in recent days has been on preparations for a no deal Brexit. However there is still hope the worst will be avoided.

Internal UK discussions

Meanwhile in Britain the Prime Minister will continue talks with the main opposition Labour party in the hope that she will build an alliance that will get a plan through the House of Commons that will create space for a more nuanced approach to Brexit. It appears that after almost three years of trying to persuade all shades of opinion in her party to accept something less than a clean break with Brussels, she now recognises that there a hard core of pro Brexit MPs that she cannot get on board.

The Labour party has also major internal divisions over Brexit and there is a high risk that if they come to agreement with the Prime Minister, they too will have an internal rebellion. Labour party policy which is set by members at their annual conference is to remain in a customs union with the EU and retain elements of the single market though not will full free movement of people.

EU position

If Westminster comes to a position that commands a majority in Parliament, then there is the issue of getting EU approval. Heads of state meet again on Wednesday and they have to consider the UK request for another extension, this time until 30 June. The EU have indicated that any extension would be subject to the UK having a plan and will be looking to have EU Parliament elections held in the UK as well. As for the duration of a further extension, the EU is inclined for a longer extension but with the flexibility for the UK to depart earlier if ready.

There is sufficient activity taking place in London and Brussels at present to suggest that there is potential to arrive at an arrangement which prevents a crash out Brexit on Friday night next at 11pm. However that will require decisions to be made in London that satisfy Brussels so that approval can be agreed. Until we reach that actual point, the default position remains a no deal Brexit in just over 100 hours from now.