Ireland’s dairy sector is set to meet its expansion target for the 10 years to 2020 this year, Teagasc director Gerry Boyle said on Tuesday.

“The Food Harvest target of a 50% increase in milk production is to be exceeded this year, at 53%, two years ahead of schedule,” he said at the annual Teagasc situation and outlook conference.

The next challenge for the sector is to ensure the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to compensate for additional greenhouse gas emissions from cows, Prof Boyle warned.

“For continued expansion of our dairy sector, we need to grow more trees,” he said.

Figures presented at the conference showed afforestation has fallen below 4,500ha this year, half of the target set for next year. This is despite an increase in grants and premiums at the start of this year and strong timber prices with recent sales of €20,000/ha to €30,000/ha, equivalent to an annualised revenue of €450/ha to €550/ha over the lifetime of the plantation, according to Teagasc forestry specialist Tom Houlihan.

Carbon sequestration

The carbon sequestration necessary to offset emissions from dairy expansion “won’t be achieved at the current rate of planting”, Prof Boyle said.

This comes as dairy remains the most promising sector to deliver sustained farm incomes into the future, according to Teagasc economist Trevor Donnellan. Asked about medium-term forecasts, he said: “The strong positive, clearly, is dairy.”

He also saw good prospects for sheep, with the top third of lowland mid-season lambing farms achieving net margins above €800/ha.

“The big challenge is the beef sector,” Donnellan added, with prices too high to compete significantly on world markets.

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