When Russia invaded Ukraine in February, along with the human suffering, political attention focused on soaring energy prices. With the EU having outsourced over 60% of its energy requirements, with almost 50% of this being met by Russia, EU consumers were directly in the firing line of what quickly became an energy war. Soaring natural gas, oil and coal prices have pushed energy inflation within the EU to over 39%.

As the war continues, concern now moves from just being focused on price to energy availability. Speaking at a Future of Europe event arranged by the Irish Farmers Journal last week, European Commissioner Mairead McGuinness once again warned that energy rationing could be a real possibility.

Should such an outcome materialise, the rationing of energy in Europe would represent one of the most spectacular policy failures ever seen within a developed society – both in terms of protecting EU citizens and tackling climate change.

The EU policy of winding down domestic energy production – without building renewable capacity – to simply rely on imports of natural gas from Russia has in recent days forced Germany – Europe’s largest economy – to re-open its mothballed coal-fired power stations as it scrambles to meet energy demands.

Food security

As the war continues, politicians are now realising that the target is no longer just the destabilisation of energy markets. The second wave of Russia’s attack is to weaponise global food security. This is not only facilitated by Putin’s ability to prevent Ukrainian grain from accessing international markets. Russia’s dominance in global fertiliser markets, particularly the production of chemical nitrogen, also gives it influence over the price and availability of food in global markets.

With energy a key ingredient in the production of nitrogen, the decision by the EU to give Russia control over its energy market in effect also handed over control of EU food production and prices.

Along with energy, there has been much focus on rising food prices since the Russian invasion. However, it is important to remember that, globally, most of the meat, dairy and confectionary currently being consumed was produced from last year’s harvest – grown and harvested prior to the spike in input costs.

War in Ukraine. The view from a farm in Ukraine as Russia continues its invasion of the country.

As the global harvest of 2022 commences, the price of growing and harvesting the grains required to feed the world over the next 12 months has soared compared to 2021. This has yet to be fully reflected in food prices. A subsequent surge in food prices, combined with the ability to restrict the supply of grains on to international markets are the two big guns that Putin will use to weaponise global food markets.

Poorer countries hit worst

Ultimately, the pawns in this food war are not EU citizens. Whatever the landscape, either domestically or internationally, the EU will secure adequate food supplies. Energy rationing may curtail food production within member states by restricting access to chemical fertiliser but the EU has adequate financial resources to outbid poorer countries in international food markets. Ultimately, it is these poorer countries – both in terms of economy and food security – that will become Putin’s pawns. The 700m people in southeast Asia, the Middle East and north Africa that are already classed as under-nourished will be the real victims.

In this context, EU policymakers must acknowledge that the real and immediate challenge facing the EU is to feed itself without starving others. The first step is to ensure policy is aligned to optimising the production of food on EU farms. This is not to sacrifice nor row back on environmental ambition. But instead to recognise that farmers must have the financial supports in place to allow them to maintain food production in a highly volatile global market while implement climate measuers.

When the heavy lifting was being done on this CAP reform in 2020 and 2021, no one could have envisaged the global backdrop in which the new policy measures would be implemented. Throughout this period, billions of euro were still being pumped into developing a second gas pipeline to further increase EU dependency on Russian gas.

Russian president Vladimir Putin

CAP must be re-examined

In the same way as a flawed energy policy has been rewritten in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is now the same urgency to re-look at measures within the new CAP. If the EU goes ahead with a CAP reform that will see the level of support targeted at food production reduced by 25-30%, it will only assist Putin in creating a global food crisis.

Ultimately the EU’s frontline defence in Putin’s food war is its 10 million farmers. But they must be given the policy landscape and financial supports to allow them go into battle.

Generating the largest food surplus within the EU, Irish farmers also have a key role to play. Similar to CAP reform, the global landscape has changed dramatically since the Government set emission reduction targets for the sector last year. To simply ignore this and proceed to lock down an emission reduction target that would reduce food output from Irish farms would be remiss from both an environmental and food security perspective.

Feeding the world

As Anne Finnegan reported online earlier this week, OECD director for trade and agriculture Marion Jansen said it is definitely the case that the agriculture sector cannot just stop producing in order to stop emissions of greenhouse gases. She said: “It can’t because the agriculture sector has to keep feeding the world.”

In this week's edition, Barry Murphy details a joint report released this week by the UN FAO and the OECD forecasts the need to increase food production by 28% over the next decade – three times the production growth over the last decade. It identified the real challenge: reducing the environmental footprint of global food production while increasing output to feed a rising world population.

What country is better positioned to respond to this challenge than Ireland – with a grass-based food production system that, according to Dr Laurence Shalloo from Teagasc, has the potential to produce 8/9kg of human edible protein for every one kilo of human edible protein consumed?

The EU’s failed energy policy of outsourcing production rather than investing in climate smart technologies to achieve territorial emission reduction targets has come at a huge costs to both consumers and the environment.

If a similar policy approach to food production is not reversed at both EU and national level, the outcome will be same – but with the added consequence forcing millions into food poverty and possibly starvation.