Editorial: measuring the pulse of rural Ireland as Ali hits Ploughing

The Ploughing always serves as an excellent event at which to take the pulse of rural Ireland – and maybe being forced to shut the gates on Wednesday sums up the rollercoaster year we’ve had.

Speaking to farmers on Tuesday though, the mood was very much determined by sector and location. The drought did not affect all. In fact, in the west and for those on heavier soils, it has been a bumper year. Some managed to save fodder from land it had not been possible to access with a tractor for a number of years. Some have harvested three cuts of silage, a feat that most have never achieved.

Further south, it is a different story, particularly in Kilkenny, Tipperary and neighbouring counties. It has been the perfect storm: free-draining soils, higher stocking rates and a more prolonged dry spell. While the recent boost in grass growth has helped, it will not bridge the fodder gap.

These farmers cannot depend on fodder moving from areas of surplus in the same way as in previous years. While there is a tradition of selling fodder in southern parts of the country, the same cannot be said for farmers in the west, who view fodder as cash in the bank. It is understandable. While an exceptionally dry summer is a rare occasion, unfortunately a wet autumn or late spring is all too common – both of which can significantly impact on winter fodder demand on these heavy farms.

A surprising number of beef finishers have decided to sell fodder off the farm or take in stock for contract feeding

However, while some farmers are facing a challenging situation, what is clear is that plans have been put in place to stretch limited fodder supplies. This early intervention is key in limiting the overall impact. There is no doubt that Teagasc advisers have had an impact in helping farmers identify problems and make plans.

Income challenges, both short-term and long, are front of mind for many. Dairy farmers in the drought regions are facing particular difficulties, albeit that most report milk output to have held up but from a much higher cost base. A stronger than anticipated milk price and good returns in 2017 are helping bridge the gap in finances. Despite these immediate challenges, most remain positive on the longer-term outlook, although the way the dairy industry is being portrayed by some vested interest groups has not gone unnoticed among farmers.

The mood among tillage farmers largely depends on the portion of spring v winter crops. Those with a high percentage of winter crops reported good returns. While yields were broadly in line with the five-year average, output value has been boosted by good demand for straw, low moisture levels and a strong grain market. Spring crops, however, have been a drag with yields of some crops, particularly in drought-hit areas, back 25-30% and straw volumes back a similar level. Most tillage farmers feel that the challenges of 2018 have demonstrated just how important the tillage sector is to the wider industry.

While fodder is not as big an issue on most suckler, sheep and beef farms, which tend to operate on heavier soils, the short- and long-term income challenges facing the sector are front of mind, particularly with factories moving to pull both beef and lamb prices. Leaving aside the market, sheep farmers report good lamb thrive over the summer.

There is real concern among suckler farmers as to the outlook for live exports and the impact that poor demand could have on prices when increased numbers come on stream. The recent pressure on beef price is seen by most suckler farmers as an attempt to drag down the live trade to encourage finishers to purchase stock. While the impact on store price will undoubtedly be a factor in encouraging finishers to fill sheds, a surprising number have decided to sell fodder off the farm or take in stock for contract feeding. For most, the risk around Brexit and currency volatility on price is too great.

Looking ahead, there is no doubt that suckler farmers are questioning their future in the sector. Many indicate an intention to reduce numbers, although most do not see dairy-beef systems as an alternative, not only due to profitability but also the quality of calves coming off dairy farms. There is clearly a need to develop a more integrated supply chain if dairy-beef systems are to become an option for suckler and beef farmers.

Interestingly, some suckler farmers were considering looking to the past and the option of double suckling, while others were considering poultry. Suckler farmers will be watching Budget 2019 closely for a commitment from Government recognising the income challenges facing the sector.

This week’s informal European Council meeting in Austria is about Brexit but in reality nothing of substance will be decided. Rather, UK prime minister Theresa May will state that the Chequers proposals should be the basis for negotiating the UK departure from and future relationship with the EU.

In his recent briefing to the Irish Farmers Journal, An Tánaiste Simon Coveney was confident that a deal would be achieved that would protect the interests of Irish farmers and the food industry, which depend on the UK for half our exports.

The Irish Farmers Journal recognises the efforts made by the Government to minimise the damage of Brexit, which it could do nothing to prevent. However, as IFA president Joe Healy writes, we would urge vigilance that any deal on a future trade relationship is tied down to secure the access and value of the UK market. There is a clear reference to no divergence on standards being tolerated at either EU or Irish Government level.

However, for the common rule book, referred to in the Chequers white paper, to be truly common, it must also be clear that there can be no divergence on tariffs or quota access in the UK post-Brexit. If this clarity and certainty can be achieved in upcoming negotiations, then there is hope that the Tánaiste’s confidence in securing agreement that serves the needs of Irish farmers isn’t misplaced.

Elsewhere this week, Thomas Hubert reports on a study into the environmental impact of food production. The study found that when measured on the basis of a unit of food produced, the environmental impact of conventional farming was lower than organic.

The study was led by a team from the University of Cambridge with the support of 17 research organisations. The findings reinforce the argument that the most environmentally sustainable way of meeting the UN’s prediction of a 50% increase in food demand by 2050 is to encourage the intensification of sustainable production models.

In the context of the next Common Agricultural Policy and the environmental focus, it is important that environmental schemes are not solely targeted at low-input systems and recognise the environmental dividend of high-output systems that are efficiently utilising inputs – most crucially land.

At the very least, the University of Cambridge research should start a discussion on how best to measure the environmental impact of food production – on a per-unit basis or per HA. The outcome has significant consequences for Irish agriculture.

Also this week, we carry the results of our Red C poll. Fine Gael continue to hold a commanding share of the rural vote with 48% of farmers indicating that they would give the party their first preference.

However, as Odile Evans reports, over 65% of respondents rate delivery on broadband and rural transport as poor or very poor. Support for the party has slipped, with 53% indicating support for Fine Gael in our 2016 poll, having peaked at 62% in September 2009, up from 40% in May 2008. With 56% of farmers believing that they have seen no benefit from the economic recovery, the October budget will influence where Fine Gael will land within in this range in the next election. Potential for growth is definitely among farmers in Connacht and Ulster and those in the lower income sectors.

Seventy-six per cent of all farmers supported calls for a €200 suckler cow payment, increasing to 93% of all suckler farmers.