A gradual reduction in direct payments, new trading relationships post-Brexit and issues around greenhouse gas emissions will all combine to create a decade of accelerated change within UK agriculture, a leading agricultural consultant has claimed.

Giving an online presentation, Richard King from Leicestershire-based farm business consultants, Andersons, suggested that not all farm businesses will be able to adapt to survive. But that will create opportunities for others, especially those with top 25% performance.

However, he maintained that getting bigger doesn’t necessarily make the farm more efficient or profitable, and that some small farms which remain part-time are actually doing quite well at the moment.

In the UK fruit and vegetable sector, there is also a major issue looming around labour

“People might try to find things to do to make the farm full-time – some of these things are not that profitable,” he said.

In the short-term, Andersons’ forecast for the rest of the year pointed to a slight weakening in dairy prices, some firming in the beef trade (due to tight slaughter numbers) and a buoyant lamb market. However, those predictions have all been turned on their head due to coronavirus.

In the UK fruit and vegetable sector, there is also a major issue looming around labour.

“The big question-mark is who is going to pick the harvest?” said King.

So will the coronavirus pandemic change government and the wider general public’s view of agri-food? He believes that it could drive some new thinking, with government looking differently on the importance of food security and consumers more interested in local food.

Trade

Since the Brexit referendum in 2016, the direction of travel for the British government has been towards opening up the UK to global trade.

At present, EU tariffs protect farmers from cheap food imports.

However, the no-deal tariff plan originally published by the government in 2019 offered farmers a very low level of protection.

Changed thinking

“The UK tariff plan has lapsed and government are re-consulting. Perhaps the last few weeks have changed the thinking a bit.

“We really need equivalent EU tariffs to provide protection for our farming industry,” said King.

He also thinks that the coronavirus pandemic could see the Brexit transition period extended for a further six months to one year, despite UK politicians insisting that the 31 December 2020 exit date still stands.

Climate change

Once we are able to move beyond Brexit and coronavirus, the other big issue that will return is climate change, said King.

Ultimately, if farmers are to do things such as planting more trees, or replacing soya in livestock diets, this will have to be paid for, either by government or by the supply chain.

However, for livestock farmers (especially beef and sheep), direct payments remain key to incomes, and there is the UK government guarantee that cash payments will remain unchanged to 2024.

But King can’t see this money being maintained to 2030, and whatever is received going forward, he believes farmers will have to do more to get it (deliver public goods).