Grain prices continue to show huge volatility with December wheat closing last Monday at €433/t on the Paris MATIF futures. This is up over €35/t, or over 9%, in the past week alone.
This latest price surge followed news that India is to ban wheat exports in a global market that is already extremely tight for the year ahead.
These prices are mainly being driven by the demand for wheat for food rather than feed, and physical markets are now pulling back from futures-driven price indicators.
Feed grains must compete with imported alternatives, where they are available, and imported maize for the end of the year had been floating around €355/t for the past few weeks.
This has also been influenced by the recent price surge which saw export price increase by €30/t in the past week to €385/t this week.
High prices mean that it is very difficult to get a handle on the market as buyers and sellers pull back. However, it seems that native new crop wheat is now €15-€20/t below futures and barley is at least €15/t below wheat to help compete with imported maize.
Some quotes this week put dry and green grain around €405-€415 and €360-€362/t for wheat and €390-€400 and €345/t for barley.