European futures prices (MATIF) weakened slightly last week, while US prices increased.

Markets continue to await news of tightening export supplies, especially from the Black Sea, but this has not yet happened and exports from the EU await improved demand.

There has been little or nothing to help bolster prices in recent times, except for a recent purchase of EU wheat by Egypt.

One possible negative is the increased maize output forecasted for Argentina.

It had been suggested that the heavy rains would impact negatively on crop output there, but the latest estimate from Buenos Ares puts output at 45mt, up 2mt from the previous week. But imported maize here is slightly stronger at the moment due to logistics.

The main movement in the market has been the price readjustment that seems to be taking place in barley versus wheat.

Barley has dropped significantly in recent weeks and it may now begin to buy back some demand in the market.

The emergence of the gap has been quite rapid, as farmers in particular begin to unload stocks to generate cash.

Wheat remains solid at around €215 to €218/t spot, with up to €220/t potentially available out to May/June.

Spot barley is now closer to €208/t and that might be the high side of the market.

November wheat is now in the €192 to €193 range, with barley €182 to €183/t.