Lack of news to support international grain prices has seen markets weaken further in the past week. And this is very much reflected in the home market. Chicago wheat futures fell from $4.90/bushel a week ago to around $4.60/bu mid-week (€159/t down to €149/t). The main driver for this appears to be the relatively slow pace of US wheat exports.

While EU wheat exports appear to be picking up as Russian exports slow, this was not enough to halt a drop in EU prices and the global old-crop outlook continues to be bearish. The outlook for new-crop grains is also weaker, with increased area and favourable weather increasingly adding to output potential.

Back home, the overhang of imported feedstuffs continues to suppress the market. All prices have weakened in the week, both nearby and new-crop, in response to the weakening sentiment.

Slow demand and lack of activity makes prices difficult to pin down, so prices are largely nominal. Spot prices stretch from current out to nearly June at this point, in expectation of a new burst of demand. Nearby wheat is now put around €210/t, with the same price likely to extend out beyond May. A similar situation applies to barley, with a price range of €192 to €195/t from here to May and beyond.

November prices have also weakened, with forward wheat now in the €185 to €188/t bracket and barley at around €175/t.