Global grain futures markets appear to be on a recovery path since last weekend, having fallen through much of last week. On 13 March, the December French MATIF wheat price closed at €179.25/t. On 20 March, it closed at €187/t and on 24 March it closed at €189.25/t, the level it had been at for much of January.

The trend was similar on markets in Chicago. Some of this movement was currency-related, but there are now real concerns over logistical issues.

While the fundamentals of supply and demand remain bearish, the market has turned to react positively to the coronavirus debacle and I wonder if we are to witness an increased emphasis on staple foods once again.

There has been some positive news to help prices too. There is increasing concern over dryness throughout the winter in a number of Baltic states, with production estimates being reduced. In the EU, Coceral cut its 2020 forecast for wheat to leave production forecasts down over 10mt on last season. Interestingly, its estimate for barley is also lower than last season.

Back home, nearby grain prices remain broadly similar to last week. Nominal values to the trade for wheat remain in the €196 to €197/t bracket from here to May and barley remains in the €172 to €175/t bracket.

New-crop prices are stronger though, as evidenced by Glanbia’s November offer yesterday of €191/t for wheat and €173/t for barley.