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The latest United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) beef production and trade forecast for 2023 is suggesting that there will be a 1% drop in global beef production and a similar drop in beef traded.
It is predicted that this will not be delivered evenly across the world, rather it will be a case of significant falls in some areas not being fully offset by increases in others.
After record volumes of beef exported in 2021, which will likely be increased further in 2022, USDA is forecasting that it will be a very different picture in the US in 2023.
Where changes are forecast to happen
Volumes in 2022 have been driven by a significant cattle cull caused by drought in many states.
This is leading to a forecasted reduction in US output by 6% and a 14% reduction in export volumes, down from 1.620m tonnes carcase weight equivalent (CWE) forecast for 2022 to 1.393m tonnes, which is still high in a historical context.
EU production is forecast to fall by 120,000t CWE next year, broadly in line with the recent EU outlook forecasts.
Increased production is forecast for Brazil - an extra 100,000t CWE - with a 375,000t or 5% increase forecast by China. Australia continues to increase as the herd rebuilding continues and the output is forecast at 260,000t CWE more in 2023 than 2022.
Trade
After prolonged year-on-year growth in China over the past decade, USDA is forecasting a 290,000t CWE fall next year. This reflects the growth in Chinese domestic beef production.
Elsewhere, only marginal changes in imports are forecast, including a 15,000t CWE increase in EU beef imports and a 20,000t CWE fall in UK imports.
While US exports are forecast to decline in 2023, Australian beef exports are forecast to increase by 210,000t CWE in 2023 to 1.510m tonnes, the highest since 2019.
Pigmeat
Global pigmeat production in 2023 is forecast by USDA to increase by 1% to 111m tonnes, mainly in China, where output is forecast to reach 52,000t CWE, the highest since 2018.
This will be reflected in a further drop in Chinese imports forecast for 2023 to 1.7m tonnes CWE, just one third of the 5.3m tonnes CWE imported in 2020.
Poultry
USDA is forecasting another poultry production increase in 2023 to 102.7m tonnes ready to cook (RTC) weight.
Ongoing global demand is driving production, which is now 10,000t RTC higher than in 2018.
Brazil will be the top producers at 14.8m tonnes RTC, followed by China on 14.3m tonnes RTC and the EU on 11m tonnes RTC.
It is striking that beef production output globally is driven by factors outside policy, with the exception of the EU, where policy is specifically designed to reduce production.
The US decreased forecast for next year is very much driven by the production increase this year caused by drought.
Australia will have rebounded following its drought and Brazil continues to grow.
For pig producers, it is clear that China has fully recovered from African swine fever and is unlikely to significantly increase pigmeat exports for the foreseeable future.
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