I burned some expensive midnight oil watching the US mid-terms on Tuesday night. It’s hard to assess what impact the routing of Donald Trump’s Republican Party will have.
Having lost control of both the House of Representatives and, crucially, the Senate, Trump can no longer unilaterally impose policies. He must now work with Democratic majority leaders on the other legs of the American political stool.
This should impact positively on foreign and trade policy. Most political commentators have highlighted the negative impact of Trump’s foreign policy on the cost of living, the key issue for US voters now.
For Ireland, more stability around tariffs seems likely. Even more importantly, Trump’s chaotic foreign policy is likely to be reined in. The current administration’s closeness to Russia has cost them, and support for Ukraine is likely to increase.
Threats to NATO countries will be opposed by the Senate and Congress. The conflict with Iran will also be up for re-evaluation. Any de-escalation there will bring relief on oil and gas prices, meaning a reduction in fuel and fertiliser prices. However, damage to infrastructure will mean this will be a slow process in the short term.
So all round, it’s good news. Probably.
