The fertiliser spreading season came to a close last Monday on 14 September and, for most of us, that means fertiliser is out of our heads for this year, except for maybe filling in the closing stock on the Ag Food website. Another job ticked off the list.

This has been a turbulent year for fertiliser prices. The US-Israeli conflict with Iran, which began on 28 February, quickly affected the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial route for oil and gas exports.

Iran subsequently restricted and closed passage through the Strait, disrupting energy shipments. This quickly affected the price of natural gas and, in turn, the price of fertiliser.

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Prices rose €80-€100/t in a matter of days and there were definite fears of a shortage. Prices stayed firm for the first half of the season, easing back a little in the summer months, but thankfully supply was never a huge issue.

Gas prices

Gas prices topped out around €62/MWh on 19 March.

They then fell back to around €40/MWh in mid-June but have been increasing steadily since.

I always remember a fertiliser rep telling me, a magic figure for an increase in CAN prices was €60/MWh, today's price, on 16 September, is around €82/MWh.

So, what does that mean for next year's fertiliser price?

Next year's fertiliser is currently being manufactured with that high gas price, so it would appear it can only mean one thing.

If I was a betting man, I would argue that fertiliser is as cheap now as it's going to be for the rest of 2026

But Trump could create a lot of problems before we need fertiliser next spring and, if it suits his own pocket, he may even cure a few, so no one really knows for sure where the price will be in 2027.

Cash flow

Fertiliser prices are still holding steady, but for how long?

Should we be trying to buy some of next year's fertiliser now and storing it? It’s a question worth asking, but in reality, how many of us have the cash flow to do that?

There is a big difference between knowing that buying now might make sense and actually having the money sitting in the bank to buy several tonnes of fertiliser that you won't need for another six months.

For many farms, there are plenty of other bills to be paid between now and spring.

Feed, machinery, fuel, electricity and all the other costs that come with running a farm don't stop just because the fertiliser season is over.

All questions that aren't easy to answer.

If I was a betting man, I would argue that fertiliser is as cheap now as it's going to be for the rest of 2026. What it's going to be next spring, when we want to spread it, is anyone's guess.

One thing is certain, the fertiliser market has shown us again this year just how quickly things can change.

A price that looks expensive one week can look very reasonable the following week and vice versa. Trying to pick the exact bottom of the market is probably a job for someone braver than me.

My last fill of white diesel was 202.5c/l at the pump and it has definitely risen since that, and that's before the Government decides to add their bit back in again.

I have to say, at the moment, probably like most people, I'm more worried about buying fuel for the winter than I am about next year's fertiliser.

There is plenty of time yet for things to change before we are back spreading fertiliser again, but the question is, will we be looking back at today's prices and wishing we had bought, or will we be glad we waited?

As usual with farming, nobody knows the answer until it's too late.