This is another of those five-seater constituencies where the outcome will go a long way to determining who forms the next government. With a population of 145,000 and an electorate of about 105,000, it’s a predominantly rural constituency outside of Carlow town and Kilkenny city.

The farming and rural issues

Kilkenny is the home of Glanbia's headquarters in Ballyragget, and the new giant plant in Belview. Most of the small towns and villages are dependent on farming and agribusiness. Carlow is home to employers such as Hi-Spec and Keenan. Naturally, rural issues such as roads, small schools, post offices and garda numbers are on people’s minds.

Who will get elected?

We got a clear indication of how this constituency feels only nine months ago in a by-election. That was to fill the seat vacated by Phil Hogan, who of course became Ireland’s European commissioner, gaining the agriculture portfolio. Farmer Bobby Aylward won, restoring Fianna Fáil to the two seats they would have considered a minimum target prior to the economic crash.

This time, it is probably the best chance Fianna Fáil has of taking three seats in a single constituency. John McGuinness is based in Kilkenny city and is a vote-getting machine. Bobby Aylward, based in south Kilkenny, will target the farming vote. Jennifer Murnane O’Connor is the Carlow-based third candidate, and will hope to be fighting for the final seat. That would require a first preference vote almost double Fianna fail's current national standing- a tall order.

For Fine Gael, Glenmore native John Paul Phelan is from a farm − his brother Seamus is a former Macra president − and Carlow-based Pat Deering is a farmer. Both were first-time TDs last time out, and in Hogan’s absence will hope to retain their seats. Carlow will want to elect a TD of their own, a fact Deering and Murnane O'Connor will emphasise.

Sinn Fein’s Kathleen Funchion seems certain to take a seat. Other potential TDs are Ann Phelan, the outgoing Labour TD and a junior minister in the Department of Agriculture, and David Fitzgerald. He performed creditably in the by-election, having beaten John Bryan for the Fine Gael nomination, but faces an uphill battle to unseat either Deering or Phelan.

The X factor here might be provided by Paddy Manning. Formerly active in Fine Gael- he managed John Paul Phelan's European election campaign in 2009- he is well-known in farming circles, having actively farmed for most of his life. He gained prominence as a gay man who opposed the marriage equality referendum last year, and is standing as a libertarian independent candidate. This is a conservative constituency, and he may gain traction.

Renua candidate Patrick McKee is formerly a Fianna Fail activist, and outpolled the Labour candidate in the by-election. A repeat would put him in the frame for that last seat too.

The smart money is on Fianna Fáil two, Fine Gael two, and Sinn Fein one, unless Ann Phelan bucks the national trend for Labour, or Manning or McKee surge in the final week of canvassing.

The odds courtesy of Paddy Power

John McGuinness (Fianna Fáil 1/14)

Kathleen Funchion (Sinn Fein 1/7)

John Paul Phelan (Fine Gael 1/5)

Bobby Aylward (Fianna Fáil 2/9)

Pat Deering (Fine Gael 4/9)

David Fitzgerald (Fine Gael 8/11)

Ann Phelan (Labour 2/1)

Jennifer Murnane O’Connor (Fianna Fáil) 9/2

Paddy Manning (Independent) 12/1

Patrick McKee (Renua) 14/1

Malcolm Noonan (Green Party) 16/1