Ireland is in the midst of an impending significant drought.
Following on from the record-breaking spring of 2020, which was the driest and sunniest on record for many central and eastern areas, the latest projections suggest drought conditions will intensify further as we progress through June.
Indeed, it appears the present drought period has the potential to become the most significant drought since 1976, perhaps even eclipsing the events of 2018. With spring rainfall totals below normal right across the country, and with just over 30% of the typical seasonal rainfall falling through much of Leinster, it’s not surprising to discover that the spring of 2020, as well as being the sunniest on record, was also the driest on record, with eastern areas again experiencing the driest conditions.
Drought duration plotted against a). maximum intensity and b). mean SPI-12 for each of the 45 droughts identified in the Island of Ireland (IoI) series 1850-2015. Circle size denotes duration (months) while the colour ramp indicates intensity and mean SPI-12 respectively. Source: Noone, Simon, Ciaran Broderick, Catriona Duffy, Tom K.R. Matthews, Robert L. Wilby, and Conor Murphy. 2019. “A 250-year Drought Catalogue for the Island of Ireland (1765-2015)”.
Soil moisture deficits
This particular combination of well below average precipitation, well above average rainfall, and above average temperatures has resulted in soil moisture deficits already approaching the maximum values recorded during the summer of 2018. At the time of writing, values are already exceeding 80mm to 85mm in parts of the greater Dublin area, and more generally between 70mm to 80mm across a large swathe of the Midlands, Leinster, south Ulster, east Connacht and North Munster.
The question on the lips of all farmers, however, is whether or not the present conditions are likely to continue?
Predictions
Present indications do suggest that overall June is likely to be drier than average across much of northwestern Europe, including Ireland, with temperatures also set to be above the 1981 to 2010 long-term average - 2020 is set to become one of the warmest years on record.
Towards the middle of the second week of June the weather models indicate that high pressure is expected to build across Scandinavia, possibly extending to Greenland at times, with lower pressure located across the Iberian peninsula. Such a typical pressure pattern is indicative of the jet stream being located well to the north of Ireland, as was the case during the most recent absolute droughts recorded in April and again in May 2020.
Warm and dry
This particular setup is expected to leave Ireland under the influence of a very warm, and potentially hot, easterly airflow of continental origins, which would lead to a further intensification of the already acute drought conditions in the east of the country, as well as exacerbating the significant soil moisture deficits in remaining areas.
Throughout the mid-month period the only forecasted precipitation is likely to emerge in the form of thunderstorms, which may become incorporated in what will be a more humid easterly air mass than the relatively dry air mass which brought us our most recent spell of heatwave conditions at the end of May.
Ultimately it seems all but inevitable that soil moisture deficits, as indicated in the accompanying graphic, will exceed those values set during the drought of 2018, with deficits of up to 90mm to 100mm in some parts of Leinster.
Soil moisture predictions for the middle of June. \ Irish Weather Channel
Droughts
As mentioned in a previous article written for the Irish Farmers Journal last month, Ireland as a country has historically been prone to drought conditions, though, surprisingly, significant droughts have been absent during the 20th century, with the exception of 1976 and 1995.
Recent events, however, such as the drought and subsequent fodder crisis of 2018, have refocused our attention somewhat on the occurrence of drought conditions in Ireland. With climate change set to result in a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of Irish droughts during the 21st century, we must become adept at preparing for and dealing with the likelihood of such extended periods of hydrological drought and increased volatility in our climate.
Volatility
This increased volatility is perhaps best emphasised by the rapidity in the change observed between the record-breaking rainfalls recorded during February, which was subsequently followed by the driest spring on record in many locations. Although we are only entering the meteorological summer, Ireland has already enjoyed a spring which by all accounts would be classified typically as an exceptional summer.
With statistically the driest season still ahead, we must begin to question if 2020 will be remembered, meteorologically at least, as the year with two summers.
Read more
The new abnormal...winter season floods, summer season droughts
The Grass Week: how farmers are tackling the drought
Farm Tech Talk: managing drought in the fields
Ireland is in the midst of an impending significant drought.
Following on from the record-breaking spring of 2020, which was the driest and sunniest on record for many central and eastern areas, the latest projections suggest drought conditions will intensify further as we progress through June.
Indeed, it appears the present drought period has the potential to become the most significant drought since 1976, perhaps even eclipsing the events of 2018. With spring rainfall totals below normal right across the country, and with just over 30% of the typical seasonal rainfall falling through much of Leinster, it’s not surprising to discover that the spring of 2020, as well as being the sunniest on record, was also the driest on record, with eastern areas again experiencing the driest conditions.
Drought duration plotted against a). maximum intensity and b). mean SPI-12 for each of the 45 droughts identified in the Island of Ireland (IoI) series 1850-2015. Circle size denotes duration (months) while the colour ramp indicates intensity and mean SPI-12 respectively. Source: Noone, Simon, Ciaran Broderick, Catriona Duffy, Tom K.R. Matthews, Robert L. Wilby, and Conor Murphy. 2019. “A 250-year Drought Catalogue for the Island of Ireland (1765-2015)”.
Soil moisture deficits
This particular combination of well below average precipitation, well above average rainfall, and above average temperatures has resulted in soil moisture deficits already approaching the maximum values recorded during the summer of 2018. At the time of writing, values are already exceeding 80mm to 85mm in parts of the greater Dublin area, and more generally between 70mm to 80mm across a large swathe of the Midlands, Leinster, south Ulster, east Connacht and North Munster.
The question on the lips of all farmers, however, is whether or not the present conditions are likely to continue?
Predictions
Present indications do suggest that overall June is likely to be drier than average across much of northwestern Europe, including Ireland, with temperatures also set to be above the 1981 to 2010 long-term average - 2020 is set to become one of the warmest years on record.
Towards the middle of the second week of June the weather models indicate that high pressure is expected to build across Scandinavia, possibly extending to Greenland at times, with lower pressure located across the Iberian peninsula. Such a typical pressure pattern is indicative of the jet stream being located well to the north of Ireland, as was the case during the most recent absolute droughts recorded in April and again in May 2020.
Warm and dry
This particular setup is expected to leave Ireland under the influence of a very warm, and potentially hot, easterly airflow of continental origins, which would lead to a further intensification of the already acute drought conditions in the east of the country, as well as exacerbating the significant soil moisture deficits in remaining areas.
Throughout the mid-month period the only forecasted precipitation is likely to emerge in the form of thunderstorms, which may become incorporated in what will be a more humid easterly air mass than the relatively dry air mass which brought us our most recent spell of heatwave conditions at the end of May.
Ultimately it seems all but inevitable that soil moisture deficits, as indicated in the accompanying graphic, will exceed those values set during the drought of 2018, with deficits of up to 90mm to 100mm in some parts of Leinster.
Soil moisture predictions for the middle of June. \ Irish Weather Channel
Droughts
As mentioned in a previous article written for the Irish Farmers Journal last month, Ireland as a country has historically been prone to drought conditions, though, surprisingly, significant droughts have been absent during the 20th century, with the exception of 1976 and 1995.
Recent events, however, such as the drought and subsequent fodder crisis of 2018, have refocused our attention somewhat on the occurrence of drought conditions in Ireland. With climate change set to result in a significant increase in the frequency and intensity of Irish droughts during the 21st century, we must become adept at preparing for and dealing with the likelihood of such extended periods of hydrological drought and increased volatility in our climate.
Volatility
This increased volatility is perhaps best emphasised by the rapidity in the change observed between the record-breaking rainfalls recorded during February, which was subsequently followed by the driest spring on record in many locations. Although we are only entering the meteorological summer, Ireland has already enjoyed a spring which by all accounts would be classified typically as an exceptional summer.
With statistically the driest season still ahead, we must begin to question if 2020 will be remembered, meteorologically at least, as the year with two summers.
Read more
The new abnormal...winter season floods, summer season droughts
The Grass Week: how farmers are tackling the drought
Farm Tech Talk: managing drought in the fields
This is a subscriber-only article
SHARING OPTIONS: