Many may have thought that prices would lift significantly when the Black Sea Grain Initiative expired on Monday.
However, French wheat actually dropped back a few cents. As the week has moved on, the price has increased.
Some of this rise may be due to uncertainty of supply as a result of the expiration of that deal, but weather is also likely to be a factor.
The Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) in the UK this week is positive for prices of maize, wheat and barley in the next two weeks, but the long-term outlook is neutral or negative, so maybe this is a time to sell. It’s very hard to know.
Drought in Spain has made EU barley production forecasts tighter, but other grain will dictate the barley price. Maize continues to trade above barley, so this is a good sign.
Rainfall levels remain below average in the US Midwest and this is a key watch point for the price of maize.
Last week, Matif wheat for December closed at €238.50/t, similar to the past few weeks. On Tuesday evening, that price was at €240.75/t, while on Wednesday afternoon, it had moved to €248.75/t.
Oilseed rape increased considerably this week. Last week, the French August price closed at €465.50/t.
On Tuesday evening 18 July, that price had increased to €477.25/t and on Wednesday afternoon, it hit €491.75/t, up €14.50/t on the day before.
Black Sea Grain Initiative
The Black Sea Grain Initiative agreement expired on Monday night. Russia withdrew from the deal and while it may be renewed at some stage, in the short term it may put a floor on prices. However, global supplies for grain are good.
During the agreement, approximately 32.9 million tonnes of grain and oilseeds were moved, about 17m tonnes of corn and 9m tonnes of wheat were included in this.
The Boortmalt price currently stands at €273/t. However, this price is subject to a €10/t charge. So, this brings the price down to €263/t. A bonus of €10/t is paid for distilling barley. So, those with distilling barley will be paid €273/t.
This price is based on an average price each week. The price on 13 July was €281/t, down from €291/t the week before.
At home, spot wheat price has been at about €240/t for three weeks now, while barley has moved down to €220/t. November prices are slightly higher at €225/t for barley and €250/t for wheat.
Imports are reported at about €5 to €10/t over these prices. Maize for November is at about €235/t.