The chaotic scenes within British politics continue. Faced with the certainty of a heavy defeat in parliament the UK prime minister Theresa May took the decision on Monday to postpone a crucial vote on her Brexit withdrawal agreement. It may now be delayed until late January.
While the backstop element of the withdrawal agreement has attracted the most intense fire, it is simply being used as a smokescreen by a political establishment finally waking up to the reality of Brexit – the backstop position has been clear since December 2017 and nothing has changed.
Speaking in Dublin this week, former UK prime minister John Major exposed the extent to which the sentiment of Brexit has, until now, overshadowed reality among British politicians. In an address where he called for the Brexit process to be halted, he said it was “time to turn to reality and not fiction, time to turn to reason and not ideology”.
Outside of the UK, few would argue with the former Conservative leader’s view in relation to stopping the clock on Brexit and allowing all sides re-assess their position rather than trying to compress everything into a period of just a few months. It is a request that would likely receive a favourable hearing within Brussels.
Acknowledging the need to respect what was then a live negotiation process, keeping plan B under wraps was a credible position. This is no longer the case
How British politicians would respond is anyone’s guess given the deep divisions that exist and the lack of a clear majority on any aspect of a Brexit deal.
As we go to press, Theresa May is embroiled in a leadership battle as speculation around a general election increases. Perhaps a new conservative leader, or an emboldened Theresa May, would be given the scope to “stop the clock”. Or perhaps a general election where Labour stood on the ticket of renegotiating Brexit – a possible backdoor referendum – would see a fundamental change in direction and the possibility of the UK remaining in the customs union and single market – which of course would eliminate the backstop problem.
However, it is all speculation. From an Irish perspective, while we can continue to hope for the best, with just over 100 days to go to what looks increasingly like a no-deal Brexit, it is time to plan for the worst.
There are numerous reports that identify what the worst looks like. At the end of 2017, an EU report forecast a fall of 0.3% in GDP across the 27 remaining member states. However, the impact on Ireland was shown to be a 3.4% reduction, or the equivalent of €54bn. A report commissioned by the Government and produced by Copenhagen Economics showed the potential for a 7% decline in Irish GDP in the wake of a no-deal Brexit.
UK prime minister Theresa May.
Both reports identified the exposure of the Irish agri food sector to the UK market as the main reason our economy is so exposed to Brexit. The EU forecasts that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Irish food exports to the UK would fall by 70%. Copenhagen Economics identified the potential for a 50% to 70% decline in Irish beef and dairy exports by 2030 in a no-deal scenario.
Throughout the process, we have been reassured by both the Government and the European Commission that contingency plans were well advanced and ready to be implemented. In an interview with this paper in September, An Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney reassured farmers that they would not be “abandoned”.
Acknowledging the need to respect what was then a live negotiation process, keeping plan B under wraps was a credible position. This is no longer the case. We now have a scenario where the EU accepts that negotiations on the withdrawal agreement have been concluded but look set to be rejected by the UK, elevating the risk of a no-deal Brexit. It is therefore time to tell farmers what tools will be put in place to support their incomes – not from 29 March but in the coming weeks as the volatile political environment creates currency shocks, devalues farmgate prices and costs increase due to disruption to normalised trade patterns. The cost of cold storage is reported to have increased by over 10% simply due to stockpiling. It is clearly time to see what plan B looks like.
Beef prices: costs rising and prices sliding
Taking a bad price for finished cattle is one thing but the added frustration of incurring a delay in getting them slaughtered takes the issue to a completely new level.
We are hearing reports of farmers waiting for two to three weeks to get some types of animals slaughtered – and again we see factories circling in on bull beef finishers despite the fact that when supplies are tight, weights and age seem irrelevant.
As Matt Dempsey reports, most farmers will have budgeted for a beef price rise in the run-up to Christmas. Unfortunately, the only rise farmers are experiencing is in input costs, with both feed and fertiliser prices being pushed up.
The next few weeks will be critical in shaping the trade in the new year. Farmers need a good clearout of stock over the Christmas period. The current conditions show how fragile the EU beef market is and how the supply and demand balance can quickly move against farmers.
It is for this reason that any decision to grant increased access to the EU beef market as part international trade negotiations needs to be continually resisted.
It is a very different scenario within dairying, where we see farmers being able to push ahead with production without any significant impact on price or processing delays. November and December milk production levels are forecast to be up by 20-30%.
To date, the Department of Agriculture has refused to reveal what farmers were affected by the 21 examples of cattle not being properly trimmed this year.
Also this week, David Wright and Phelim O’Neill explore the legislative basis for carcase dressing in meat factories. To date, the Department of Agriculture has refused to reveal what farmers were affected by the 21 examples of cattle not being properly trimmed this year.
The Department has the authority under EU legislation to add 2% to carcases where there has been excessive trimming. We have asked if this was done in the 21 cases but, as we go to press, have not received an answer.
Our analysis recognises that improvements are being made in the monitoring of carcase trim but we are starting from a low base. Two further steps are required to bring monitoring of trimming in factories to a level that gives confidence to farmers.
The first is that the result of inspection reports are published with factories named. Secondly, technology has to be upgraded to a point where a sufficiently high-quality image can be captured and used for review.
FRS survey: young farmers’ attitudes towards co-ops
Recently on this page we ran an editorial asking about the future leaders of our industry. A key ingredient in the success of the co-op model and our representative organisations has been the central involvement of farmers – farmers who not only displayed great foresight and leadership but also recognised the value of giving their time. This week, FRS Network, with the support of the Golden Jubilee Trust, launched a research project to find out young farmers’ attitudes towards co-ops and their possible involvement in the boards of management in the future. It is an important piece of work. We would encourage all farmers to take part in the confidential survey that can be accessed here.
Farm safety: should the farmyard be a no-go area?
All children under 12 should be fully supervised on the farmyard.
I would encourage all farm families to read our farm safety article this week. Mairead Lavery deals with the subject of keeping children safe on farms and asks whether or not the farmyard is a no-go area for children under the age of 12.
The extent to which the farmyard and indeed farming itself is interwoven into the fabric of family life makes it difficult to draw boundaries. However, regardless of where you stand on the issue, there is a need to put farm safety at the heart of the conversation with children and take all steps necessary to reduce risks.
Our weekly farm safety page is supported by ESB Networks.
Read more
Industry Insight: confidence vote changes little
The chaotic scenes within British politics continue. Faced with the certainty of a heavy defeat in parliament the UK prime minister Theresa May took the decision on Monday to postpone a crucial vote on her Brexit withdrawal agreement. It may now be delayed until late January.
While the backstop element of the withdrawal agreement has attracted the most intense fire, it is simply being used as a smokescreen by a political establishment finally waking up to the reality of Brexit – the backstop position has been clear since December 2017 and nothing has changed.
Speaking in Dublin this week, former UK prime minister John Major exposed the extent to which the sentiment of Brexit has, until now, overshadowed reality among British politicians. In an address where he called for the Brexit process to be halted, he said it was “time to turn to reality and not fiction, time to turn to reason and not ideology”.
Outside of the UK, few would argue with the former Conservative leader’s view in relation to stopping the clock on Brexit and allowing all sides re-assess their position rather than trying to compress everything into a period of just a few months. It is a request that would likely receive a favourable hearing within Brussels.
Acknowledging the need to respect what was then a live negotiation process, keeping plan B under wraps was a credible position. This is no longer the case
How British politicians would respond is anyone’s guess given the deep divisions that exist and the lack of a clear majority on any aspect of a Brexit deal.
As we go to press, Theresa May is embroiled in a leadership battle as speculation around a general election increases. Perhaps a new conservative leader, or an emboldened Theresa May, would be given the scope to “stop the clock”. Or perhaps a general election where Labour stood on the ticket of renegotiating Brexit – a possible backdoor referendum – would see a fundamental change in direction and the possibility of the UK remaining in the customs union and single market – which of course would eliminate the backstop problem.
However, it is all speculation. From an Irish perspective, while we can continue to hope for the best, with just over 100 days to go to what looks increasingly like a no-deal Brexit, it is time to plan for the worst.
There are numerous reports that identify what the worst looks like. At the end of 2017, an EU report forecast a fall of 0.3% in GDP across the 27 remaining member states. However, the impact on Ireland was shown to be a 3.4% reduction, or the equivalent of €54bn. A report commissioned by the Government and produced by Copenhagen Economics showed the potential for a 7% decline in Irish GDP in the wake of a no-deal Brexit.
UK prime minister Theresa May.
Both reports identified the exposure of the Irish agri food sector to the UK market as the main reason our economy is so exposed to Brexit. The EU forecasts that in the event of a no-deal Brexit, Irish food exports to the UK would fall by 70%. Copenhagen Economics identified the potential for a 50% to 70% decline in Irish beef and dairy exports by 2030 in a no-deal scenario.
Throughout the process, we have been reassured by both the Government and the European Commission that contingency plans were well advanced and ready to be implemented. In an interview with this paper in September, An Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Coveney reassured farmers that they would not be “abandoned”.
Acknowledging the need to respect what was then a live negotiation process, keeping plan B under wraps was a credible position. This is no longer the case. We now have a scenario where the EU accepts that negotiations on the withdrawal agreement have been concluded but look set to be rejected by the UK, elevating the risk of a no-deal Brexit. It is therefore time to tell farmers what tools will be put in place to support their incomes – not from 29 March but in the coming weeks as the volatile political environment creates currency shocks, devalues farmgate prices and costs increase due to disruption to normalised trade patterns. The cost of cold storage is reported to have increased by over 10% simply due to stockpiling. It is clearly time to see what plan B looks like.
Beef prices: costs rising and prices sliding
Taking a bad price for finished cattle is one thing but the added frustration of incurring a delay in getting them slaughtered takes the issue to a completely new level.
We are hearing reports of farmers waiting for two to three weeks to get some types of animals slaughtered – and again we see factories circling in on bull beef finishers despite the fact that when supplies are tight, weights and age seem irrelevant.
As Matt Dempsey reports, most farmers will have budgeted for a beef price rise in the run-up to Christmas. Unfortunately, the only rise farmers are experiencing is in input costs, with both feed and fertiliser prices being pushed up.
The next few weeks will be critical in shaping the trade in the new year. Farmers need a good clearout of stock over the Christmas period. The current conditions show how fragile the EU beef market is and how the supply and demand balance can quickly move against farmers.
It is for this reason that any decision to grant increased access to the EU beef market as part international trade negotiations needs to be continually resisted.
It is a very different scenario within dairying, where we see farmers being able to push ahead with production without any significant impact on price or processing delays. November and December milk production levels are forecast to be up by 20-30%.
To date, the Department of Agriculture has refused to reveal what farmers were affected by the 21 examples of cattle not being properly trimmed this year.
Also this week, David Wright and Phelim O’Neill explore the legislative basis for carcase dressing in meat factories. To date, the Department of Agriculture has refused to reveal what farmers were affected by the 21 examples of cattle not being properly trimmed this year.
The Department has the authority under EU legislation to add 2% to carcases where there has been excessive trimming. We have asked if this was done in the 21 cases but, as we go to press, have not received an answer.
Our analysis recognises that improvements are being made in the monitoring of carcase trim but we are starting from a low base. Two further steps are required to bring monitoring of trimming in factories to a level that gives confidence to farmers.
The first is that the result of inspection reports are published with factories named. Secondly, technology has to be upgraded to a point where a sufficiently high-quality image can be captured and used for review.
FRS survey: young farmers’ attitudes towards co-ops
Recently on this page we ran an editorial asking about the future leaders of our industry. A key ingredient in the success of the co-op model and our representative organisations has been the central involvement of farmers – farmers who not only displayed great foresight and leadership but also recognised the value of giving their time. This week, FRS Network, with the support of the Golden Jubilee Trust, launched a research project to find out young farmers’ attitudes towards co-ops and their possible involvement in the boards of management in the future. It is an important piece of work. We would encourage all farmers to take part in the confidential survey that can be accessed here.
Farm safety: should the farmyard be a no-go area?
All children under 12 should be fully supervised on the farmyard.
I would encourage all farm families to read our farm safety article this week. Mairead Lavery deals with the subject of keeping children safe on farms and asks whether or not the farmyard is a no-go area for children under the age of 12.
The extent to which the farmyard and indeed farming itself is interwoven into the fabric of family life makes it difficult to draw boundaries. However, regardless of where you stand on the issue, there is a need to put farm safety at the heart of the conversation with children and take all steps necessary to reduce risks.
Our weekly farm safety page is supported by ESB Networks.
Read more
Industry Insight: confidence vote changes little
This is a subscriber-only article
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