The year 2012 will live long in the memory of Irish farmers for all the wrong reasons a,s a wet summer resulted in one of the most difficult silage seasons on record.

Indeed, 2012 was the wettest summer in the previous 26 years (1986), with parts of the country reporting the highest rainfall since as far back as 1962, fifty years previous.

It resulted in delayed silage harvest, poor quality and reduced fodder in yards as the winter approached.

Looking back at the livestock pages of the Irish Farmers Journal for autumn 2012, fodder was the key topic, with advice on how to stretch reserves or supplement animals to make up for the inadequacies of the fodder available.

Similarities

There can be some similarities drawn between 2012 and 2022, in that fodder, especially in the south of the country, is in short supply once again this year, albeit due to dry and drought conditions this year.

Grain prices are once again at record highs this winter, primarily due to the war in Ukraine, with winter feed costs surpassing the highs of 2012 by around 35%.

Meal prices

Unfortunately, while Ireland experienced one of the wettest summers on record, other parts of the world were experiencing a drought, which led to reduced grain yields in the US and South America.

It resulted in a sharp increase in grain prices and heading into winter 2012, a tonne of 16% protein ration was costing in the region of €310/t to €330/t.

Factory prices

In December 2012, beef price for steers hovered around the €3.90/kg to €4/kg mark, while heifers were securing 15c/kg to 20c/kg above this, with supplies of finished heifers particularly tight at the time.

Cow price was floating between €3.65/kg and €3.80/kg for the most part of the month, with the demand for cows being described as ‘lively’, especially the live cow trade, and farmers with heavy cows were recommended to sell in the mart, where prices were running 20c/kg to 30c/kg ahead of the equivalent factory price at the time.

Finishing budgets

In its yearly winter finishing budgets, Teagasc forecast a beef price of €4.70/kg required the following spring in order to make winter finishing work for farmers.

The debate, as it has been most years since, was around the future of winter finishing in Ireland. The price gap between Irish and UK beef on a 350kg finished steer stood at €250/head.

After large kill numbers in the run-up to Christmas, prime cattle numbers were becoming extremely tight towards the end of December and the outlook for January/February was beginning to look positive for winter finishers.

However, little did we know we were just a few weeks away from the breaking of the horsemeat scandal, which would have huge consequences on the beef trade in 2013 and beyond.

Comparison

Comparing December 2012 with December 2022, beef prices have increased by about €1/kg or roughly 25%. This week, we see €4.90/kg to €5/kg being paid for bullocks, while heifers are making €4.95/kg to €5.05/kg in the main.

The economics of winter finishing continues to be debated each autumn, with Teagasc reporting a beef price in excess of €6/kg (28% increase on 2013 forecast) required this year to leave a €100/head margin.

Looking at the live trade, mart reports from the Irish Farmers Journal throughout autumn 2012 showed store bullock prices of €2/kg to €2.10/kg for the most part for those weighing 500kg to 600kg. Heavier bullocks over 600kg were making €2/kg to €2.05/kg.

Comparing those with prices this week, the average price paid for 500kg to 600kg bullocks sits at €2.61/kg (27% increase), while those over 600kg are making €2.67/kg on average.

That equates to a €308/head increase for a 550kg animal and €416/head increase for a 600kg animal in that timeframe.

Other 2012 prices

Urea - €475/t.

CAN - €335/t.

4x4 bale of straw - €12 ex.

4x4 bale of hay - €22 to €25.

16% general beef ration - €330.

U grading bull - €4.25/kg carcase.

R grading cow - €3.75/kg carcase.

Friesian cull cow in mart - €1.15/kg to €1.25/kg.

Continental cow in mart - €1.80/kg to €2/kg.

Green diesel – 91.4c/l.