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Even with the rolling out of a nationwide badger vaccination programme, it will take almost 70 years to eradicate bovine TB in Ireland, according to Professor of Veterinary Epidemiology at University College Dublin, Simon More.
More made the point at a science conference in the Agri-Food and Biosciences Institute in Belfast last week.
The average per thousand (APT) of infected animals has increased nationally from 1.84 to 1.94, while the herd incidence rate has only fallen marginally, from 3.88% to 3.47%, in the last five years.
Prevalence of infection
“The evidence we have is that a vaccine is only effective if the prevalence of infection is quite low,” said More.
“If you had asked me six months ago, I would have suggested eradication was wishful thinking in Ireland.”
Decisions taken now will have huge implications for the future
However, now taking the introduction of country-wide badger vaccinations into account More believes it will still take up to 70 years to eradicate the disease.
“We need to get the ratio even lower, either by further culling of badgers and other wildlife, or greater cattle controls. The former is not possible, so we are looking at the latter. Decisions taken now will have huge implications for the future,” said More.
Department position
Professor More also referenced the case of Australia, who had managed to eradicate TB over a 27-year period.
In February, Minister for Agriculture Michael Creed announced that a review of the current TB eradication programme would be undertaken in conjunction with nationwide TB badger vaccinations.
“With the commitment of all stakeholders, the Department believes TB eradication can be attained by 2030,” a spokesperson for the Department of Agriculture told the Irish Farmers Journal.
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