The late night agreement in Brussels and the decision by the UK government to stand down the no-deal Brexit preparation team as well as go on holidays suggests that the danger has passed.

Public fatigue in the UK and indeed across much of the EU adds to this sense as there is general relief that other issues are moving to the top of the news bulletins.

Another chance

However, what really has happened is that a further window of either three or six months has been created to try and solve the problem that has been in place for almost three years and that is how the UK would leave the EU without causing chaos for itself and main trading partners, of which Ireland and Irish agriculture is one.

In fact, only in the past six months has the UK government seriously addressed the issue and found that the basis of the Brexit project was a mirage.

Having cake and eating it as well as making a deal with the EU from the outside being the easiest trade deal in history were excellent campaign slogans, but as events over recent months have demonstrated, these were a total illusion.

Only in the past six months has the UK government seriously addressed the issue and found that the basis of the Brexit project was a mirage

The EU’s existence depends on harmonisation between members on both customs tariffs and regulatory standards within the framework of a single market. That framework has four pillars or freedoms as they are described: the free movement of people, money, goods and services. There are no opt-ins or opt-outs to be part of this model, ironically if not made in Britain, very much shaped by the UK during Margaret Thatcher’s time as prime minster.

Westminster relaxes

As Westminster breaks for Easter, discussions continue between the Government and the main opposition Labour party on adopting a common approach to achieving a departure from the EU and a basis for a future trading relationship.

At this point the cliché of no deal being better than a bad deal seems to have given way to "we will hold on until we can find a deal that the majority of Parliament agrees with".

The problem here is that this is broken into three options, none of which command a majority among MPs.

Of the three, the best for Irish farmers and indeed farmers across the UK would be that the UK reversed its decision to leave and stay within the EU. The second less favourable but workable option would be for parliament to pass the withdrawal agreement agreed by the British government with the EU in November but rejected three times by parliament.

The final and most unpalatable option is that the UK departs without a deal, which despite vocal opposition remains one of the three real options that are available over coming weeks.

Risk of complacency

The danger for farmers and Irish exporters is that with two deadlines having now passed, we learn to live with Brexit uncertainty as the new normality.

A rolling UK membership of the EU is fine but there is bound to be an element of fatigue that brings this to a close at some point.

It is also likely that the opposition Labour Party, sensing the unpopularity of the government in opinion polls, is likely to prefer an election to a Brexit solution in which they are seen to support the unpopular government.

Two cliff edges and their consequences with Brexit have now been avoided. The fact that it is business as usual again this weekend is to be welcomed compared with a no-deal Brexit. However, ongoing uncertainty at the time of a difficult EU budget and CAP reform is something that Irish farmers could do without.