The breaking news in Brussels that a withdrawal agreement has been reached between negotiators, means that it is now over to the UK government to decide if it will be put to parliament. In fact, the word agreement isn’t used yet, the term 'stabilised' is being used, which is how agreement between negotiators that awaits political approval is described.

Media briefings

While nobody has seen precisely what is on the table yet, briefing is now happening and the UK cabinet is reported to have been brought in to meet the Prime Minister face-to-face and see what is being proposed. So with just 136 days until the UK leaves the EU, the UK government will have to take a definitive position on whether or not to support the negotiation or reject the proposals; with a no-deal Brexit the consequence.

While the text of the proposed deal remains under wraps, it is understood that it leans towards the entire UK remaining within the customs union, or something similar with the same effect, at least in the interim. As long as that remains in place, then an Irish border backstop wouldn’t be an issue. However, where we need to see the detail is around what happens in relation to Northern Ireland if the UK decides to end this arrangement at some point in the future. It is thought that this is provided for, but we cannot be clear about that yet.

UK-wide customs union best for farmers

For farmers either side of the border, the ideal solution would be that all of the UK remains aligned to the customs union. This would preserve market access both north and south, as it is at present. Additionally, because the UK wouldn’t be in a position to negotiate external trade deals independently, it would serve to preserve access to the UK market to the exclusion of third countries that have huge export interests in the agricultural sector.

Crunch time

This is of course a developing story and the first tough political decision has to be made by the British cabinet in the next 24 hours. There is no guarantee this will happen, but the PM will have decided that this is the best chance she has of getting it through. The thinking over recent weeks was that the basis of the agreement was there, but the PM needed more time to prepare the ground. If she gets through the next 24 hours with minimal resignations, then the next battle will be to secure parliamentary approval – an even bigger challenge.

It really feels like now or never.