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This week’s northern edition of the Irish Farmers Journal carries a good news story about a work-around that has been found to enable sheep enter NI from Scotland.
As with most things Brexit, it requires potential exporters in Scotland to register, something that cannot be assumed because it is not the sort of thing that farmers in Scotland will be thinking of, apart from when they are selling sheep.
It will require a good intensive communication campaign to get the system in place before the end of the year.
Scotland-NI solution
Despite being bureaucratic, it is at least a workable solution. Elsewhere, the discussions between the UK and EU are ongoing, with no little bluster around triggering Article 16 in relation to the Northern Ireland (NI) Protocol and the French fishing dispute.
What is most worrying about the ongoing protocol debate is the potential it has to damage cross-border agriculture trade.
Brexit is already hitting the UK economy hard with a 4% cost according to the UK government's budget office, twice the long-term cost of COVID-19.
There is also an inevitable cost for the UK’s main EU trading partners, particularly Ireland, from the additional cost of doing business. This hasn’t really impacted so far because of the delay by the UK in introducing full border controls for animal and plant products.
Never-ending negotiations
The current round of negotiations is, in many ways, similar to previous negotiations, each of which ended with a solution that, in effect, wasn’t a solution, as the debate is still going on.
In some ways, it feels like a never-ending process that will drift from one crisis to the next, never quite breaking down, but never quite functioning smoothly.
While this goes on, the island of Ireland will trade in uncertainty, with the risk always there of a breakdown that can throw trade in farm goods and agri produce into chaos.
The best hope remains that the current negotiations will lead to an alignment with the EU on veterinary standards, but this looks unlikely.
Other trade deals
The other future threat that is now inevitable is the consequences of the Australian and New Zealand trade deals.
These will increase direct competition for Irish exports in the UK market, while the trade and co-operation agreement with the EU facilitates continued exports from Britain of beef and sheepmeat.
Just because Irish farmers haven’t so far had any negative Brexit consequences doesn’t mean we can forget about them – they are deferred, not avoided.
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