Grain markets engaged in their usual gyrations last week, as rain danced on markets to dampen futures wheat price, especially in the US. Then an output estimate for 2018 suggested a significant lowering of stocks for the year ahead. So volatility continues, but the MATIF has been much more stable. Currency is also a significant factor.

Rain in the dry wheat-growing areas of the US plains caused wheat prices there to dip sharply last week, but it did not prove to be enough to help crops greatly, so prices rose again.

The last International Grains Council market report projected a drop in global production for the coming harvest and a substantial increase in consumption. If these factors come together, grain stocks are set to fall by an estimated 46 million tonnes from 610Mt. This is mainly a consequence of reduced maize stocks due to increased consumption.

Native spot prices appear to have firmed a bit as feed producers struggle with feed production and delivery. Spot wheat is around €180/t, with dry barley at least €5/t higher. New-crop prices are lower as maize price weakens. November wheat is €175 to €180/t, with barley closer to €170/t.

UK price movements were variable over the past week. Ex-farm prices were up, with wheat at £145.80/t (up £2.10) and barley at £138.80/t (up £3.30). Delivered grains were broadly flat.