The past week saw grain prices continue to rise. The main driver of this has been that supply is unlikely to meet the estimated demand for the coming year.

As well as this, falling global stocks increased the sensitivity of the current crop to any form of adverse weather.

A Glanbia text to suppliers on Tuesday morning offered €195/t for green wheat for harvest and €176/t for barley (exclusive of bonuses).

On the previous Wednesday, the same offers were €178 and €165/t for wheat and barley respectively.

That is a €17 increase for wheat and €11/t for barley. These increases are merely tracking general market sentiment.

Maize

Maize continues to be the main price driver, with nearby ex-port prices surging to €275/t this week, while the November export price has increased to €245/t.

Demand for maize and predicted thigh supply is the major price driver.

That price for November maize is about €75/t higher than most recent years and it may rise further.

However, all the variables are still uncertain and prices can fall faster than they rise. In the recent trading, there has been an easing of prices.

A better than expected safrinha maize harvest in Brazil, an increase in US planted area, or a slight reduction in China demand could quickly reverse recent sentiment.