International grain markets continue to move up slightly, with MATIF December wheat closing higher last Friday compared with the previous week (€210 v €208.75/t) and this increased to €210.25/t at the close on Tuesday night.

The situation is broadly similar for MATIF maize, with its November 2021 price closing last week at €180.5/t, up slightly on the previous Friday, and it closed at €181/t on Tuesday 17 November. Prices for wheat and maize on the Chicago market were also up slightly over the past seven days.

The market drivers remain broadly similar, with international demand for feed grains being the major catalyst. Demand for wheat is also strong, but very high stock levels continue to influence long-term sentiment.

The latest AHDB report indicates that imports of barley, maize, sorghum and wheat into China jumped 191% to 5.16mt from July to September 2020, compared to the same period in 2019.

Russia wheat exports

Russia announced last week that it is to impose a limit (tariff rate quota) of 15mt on the volume of grains that can be exported from 15 February until 30 June. While the news was significant, it had been anticipated and generated very little market response.

Meanwhile, the AHDB reports that November exports from Russia of wheat, barley and maize are estimated to be 5.1mt – up from 4.95mt in October. If strong export levels continue into December and January, it is possible that the impact of Russian export limit could be minimal.

Native prices

Physical prices here remain similar to last week. The market is described as quiet, but supportive, because prices have risen for all the main cereals and feeds. Perhaps the big single question in our market is whether barley can remain so low relative to the other cereals. The answer to that may only become clear when British barley is no longer an option.

May deals could see prices around €218/t

As has been the case for many weeks, nearby demand is very sporadic and most sales are focused on 2021, with a requirement for immediate movement likely to be discounted.

With nearby markets now largely focused on the new year, wheat remains in the €212-€215/t range. May deals could see prices around €218/t. Nearby barley remains in the €187 to €192/t range due to import pressure, with €195 to €198/t now mooted for May. However, this could see a stronger price sentiment emerge once Brexit negotiations provide some certainty.

Looking further out, November 2021 wheat is currently hinted at €193/t, with barley indicated at €180/t.