A combination of agricultural innovation, reduced food waste and changes in dietary trends will be needed if the Earth is to feed its population by 2050, according to a new article published in the scientific journal Nature.
Any of these three types of change alone would not be sufficient to avoid overshooting the so-called "planetary boundaries", estimating how much the global environment can take before humanity hits the limits of climate change, pollution and water and land use, according to the authors led by Univsersity of Oxford food policy researcher Dr Marco Springmann.
"Staying within the mean value of the greenhouse gas boundary requires ambitious dietary change towards more plant-based, flexitarian diets, in combination with either reductions in food loss and waste or technological improvements," they wrote.
At least two of these three major shifts in our agri-food system would be required to avoid hitting other limits, such as the amount of land and water available, or nitrogen and phosphorus use.
Yields and feed
The technological improvements taken into account include increases in crop yields, better fertiliser and water management, and "changes in manure management, feed conversion and feed additives that reduce enteric fermentation in livestock".
On changing diets, the study shows that it would not be possible for the world's population to continue to shift towards western-style diets as it grows towards up to 10bn people in 2050. The authors found that introducing more plant-based proteins and cutting livestock products in the diet of this growing population would have the strongest effect in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agri food.
Uncertainties
Doing nothing is not an option, according to the article: "The environmental impacts of the food system would exceed the planetary boundaries for food-related GHG emissions by 110%, for cropland use by 70%, for bluewater use by 50%, for nitrogen application by 125% and for phosphorus application by 75%."
The authors acknowledged that many assumptions and uncertainties remain.
"We did not include technologies or mitigation measures that have large uncertainties at present, such as soil carbon sequestration, nitrogen-fixing cereals, or landless biomass production," they wrote. They also acknowledged that the planetary boundaries model may not translate to local level.
Read more
Climate not the only factor in finding livestock balance
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C: what does it mean for agriculture?
Defining year ahead for farming and climate
More intensively farmed food has lower environmental impact – study
A combination of agricultural innovation, reduced food waste and changes in dietary trends will be needed if the Earth is to feed its population by 2050, according to a new article published in the scientific journal Nature.
Any of these three types of change alone would not be sufficient to avoid overshooting the so-called "planetary boundaries", estimating how much the global environment can take before humanity hits the limits of climate change, pollution and water and land use, according to the authors led by Univsersity of Oxford food policy researcher Dr Marco Springmann.
"Staying within the mean value of the greenhouse gas boundary requires ambitious dietary change towards more plant-based, flexitarian diets, in combination with either reductions in food loss and waste or technological improvements," they wrote.
At least two of these three major shifts in our agri-food system would be required to avoid hitting other limits, such as the amount of land and water available, or nitrogen and phosphorus use.
Yields and feed
The technological improvements taken into account include increases in crop yields, better fertiliser and water management, and "changes in manure management, feed conversion and feed additives that reduce enteric fermentation in livestock".
On changing diets, the study shows that it would not be possible for the world's population to continue to shift towards western-style diets as it grows towards up to 10bn people in 2050. The authors found that introducing more plant-based proteins and cutting livestock products in the diet of this growing population would have the strongest effect in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from agri food.
Uncertainties
Doing nothing is not an option, according to the article: "The environmental impacts of the food system would exceed the planetary boundaries for food-related GHG emissions by 110%, for cropland use by 70%, for bluewater use by 50%, for nitrogen application by 125% and for phosphorus application by 75%."
The authors acknowledged that many assumptions and uncertainties remain.
"We did not include technologies or mitigation measures that have large uncertainties at present, such as soil carbon sequestration, nitrogen-fixing cereals, or landless biomass production," they wrote. They also acknowledged that the planetary boundaries model may not translate to local level.
Read more
Climate not the only factor in finding livestock balance
Limiting global warming to 1.5°C: what does it mean for agriculture?
Defining year ahead for farming and climate
More intensively farmed food has lower environmental impact – study
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