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Maize
The USDA last week released the first of its forecasts of 2018 maize yields based on current crop conditions in its WASDE report. The 2018/19 US maize crop was increased by over 9Mt, bringing total maize production to 370.5Mt, a record yield.
With yields expected to be in the region of 11.2t/ha, the current forecast would exceed last year’s record of 11.1t/ha. The AHDB reports that the US maize crop is now pegged just 0.5Mt smaller than 2017/18, and mostly offsets cuts to wheat production elsewhere.
Wheat
As the full effects of the drought in Europe continue to materialise, there were further reductions in production estimates. EU soft wheat (excluding durum) production was reduced by 4.7Mt, to 127.7Mt by Strategie Grains.
The AHDB reports that German grain production could hit a 24-year low and French maize production is estimated to fall 10% below 2017.
Further east, the Russian wheat production estimate was reduced by 0.3Mt to 70.1Mt.
Soya beans
Across the water, 2018/19 US soya bean production is now estimated at 124.8Mt, up 7.5Mt from July, driven primarily by an increase in production, which in turn was driven by estimates of increased US soya bean in Friday's WASDE report.
Oilseed
The USDA WASDE report reduced revisions in European rapeseed production by 1.0Mt to 19.2Mt, significantly below the European Commission’s production estimate.
Meanwhile, however, 2018/19 global oilseed production is forecast at 603.1Mt, an increase of 10.53Mt on last month (USDA). The increase is due to higher production of soya beans, sunflower seed, peanuts and cotton seed.
On the Euronext exchange (MATIF) in Paris, maize, milling wheat and oilseed rape futures recorded losses over the week.
Milling wheat for delivery in December recorded a €8.8/t decrease since last week to finish yesterday’s trade at €208.9/t.
Oilseed rape prices were also up on last week. Rapeseed prices from Paris were up €11.3/t since last week to €385.5/t.
November 2017 maize prices recorded a €9.3/t increase over the previous week to finish at €197.3/t by the close of trade on Monday.
Looking across the water to the Chicago grain market (CME), wheat, maize and soya beans eroded last week's strong gains over the past seven days.
2018 December futures now stand at $146.6/t for maize, back $5.0/t, and $322.24/t for November-delivered soya beans, down $7.6/t.
Chicago wheat futures have also decreased over the past week with prices for the December-delivered crop down $15.8/t to $203.93/t.
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