Wheat

The International Grains Council has forecast that 2018/19 world wheat production is set to fall to a five-year low of 721Mt. This follows significant downgrades to the anticipated harvest yields in Russia and the EU.

EU: The anticipated EU wheat harvest is now forecasted at 142Mt for 2018/19, down over 4Mt from the 2018/19 June forecast.

USA: US winter wheat production is expected to decline by 6% after drought affected crops.

Russia: The 2018/19 Russian wheat production forecast now pegs the harvest at 66Mt. This is a 4.9Mt reduction from the previous forecast, down 18.9Mt from 2017/18 when Russia was the world’s largest wheat exporter (AHDB).

Maize

The continued momentum in cereal process will most likely be dictated by ongoing developments with the maize harvest. The European Commission MARS crop monitoring report suggests that EU grain maize yields are looking good, particularly in Hungary, Romania, France and Bulgaria.

Oilseed

Rapeseed production across the EU is now expected to fall below 20Mt in 2018/19. The European Commission has decreased its crop estimate by 1.2Mt to just 19.7Mt. This is 10% lower than in 2017 and the lowest since 2012 (19.2Mt)

On the Euronext exchange (MATIF) in Paris, maize, wheat and oilseed rape futures recorded strong gains over the week.

Milling wheat for delivery in December recorded a €9/t increase since last week to finish yesterday’s trade at €188/t.

Oilseed rape prices were also up on last week. Rapeseed prices from Paris were up €9/t since last week to € 374.25/t.

November 2017 maize prices recorded a €4.50/t increase over the previous week to finish at €188/t by the close of trade on Monday.

Looking across the water to the Chicago grain market (CME), wheat, maize and soya beans recorded strong gains over the week.

2018 December futures now stand at $150.07/t for maize, up $4.80/t, and $327.39/t for November-delivered soya beans, up $11.80/t.

Wheat futures have also increased with prices for December-delivered crop up $12.6/t to $207.60/t.

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