Ireland’s food exports and imports could each drop by roughly a third if the UK fails to agree a future trade deal with the European Union, a new London School of Economics report has revealed.

The report, titled Vulnerabilities of Supply Chains Post-Brexit, predicts that Irish food exports will plunge by 29.9%. Currently, 43% of Ireland’s food exports are destined for the UK.

Imports have also been forecast to decline by 33.6% in the event the UK fails to reach a deal.

Sea border

Declines are still expected if a free trade agreement is reached, and the authors predict that Ireland’s food exports will decline by 11.1% and food imports will fall by 12.6% under that scenario.

The report highlights the importance of the full application of the NI political declaration in the event of no deal.

Economist Nikhil Datta said: “If the border is between Northern Ireland and the Republic, there will be a large hit. If all the trade is predominantly staying on the island and the border is on the Irish Sea, then the impact might not be as great.”

Looming fate

IFA president Tim Cullinan has said the scale of our exports to the UK, particularly for beef and dairy, means this would have very serious repercussions in every parish in the country.

Cullinan said: “The report predicts a disastrous outcome in the event of a no-deal scenario. The very survival of our core indigenous industry is at stake here.

“Even in the case of a free trade agreement, the outlook is bleak, with a drop in exports of 11%.”

The IFA president called on Taoiseach Micheál Martin to use Thursday's EU summit to raise the serious implications of the UK stance on Brexit for the Irish farming and food sector.

Cullinan continued: “Time is not on our side, with a key EU Council meeting scheduled for a fortnight’s time. The two day summit is an opportunity for the Taoiseach to seek support for our position.

“While a €5bn contingency fund has been set aside at EU level, our own Government will have to come forward with support for the sector.”

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