Writing in The Irish Times on 30 June 2016, the editor of the Irish Farmers JournalJustin McCarthy described the Brexit vote as having set the bomb ticking for Irish farmers.

Now, the announcement by the Labour Party in the UK that in certain circumstances they would support a second referendum suggests that there may still be a chance to defuse that metaphorical bomb.

Labour split

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This isn’t a sudden revisionism based on a recognition by party leader Jeremy Corbyn that Brexit is a bad idea. Instead it is a recognition that his party is arguably even more split than the Conservatives and he had to do something to keep his pro-Europe MPs on board after eight defections last week.

Pro-customs alignment

The core labour party policy on Brexit is for the UK to retain customs alignment with the EU, preventing in the process the pursuit of unilateral trade deals by the UK. These would inevitably lead to the import of cheap imports of agricultural products, particularly beef from outside the EU and in the process devalue Irish and UK farm produce. A customs policy that prevents this would be most welcome to farmers.

Labour would also support close alignment with the EU single market, which again is a positive, though for the Irish economy nothing will be as beneficial as a decision by the UK to remain in the EU.

The problem at this stage is that, as many predicted, Theresa May has successfully run the clock down to have the final vote on 12 March – where her withdrawal deal is likely to be the main option.

Options narrowing

Ahead of that is a vote this week promoted by cross party MPs which would dictate that the UK cannot depart the EU on a no-deal basis. It is against this background, and in the event of the Labour proposal on remaining aligned with the EU on customs and trade being also rejected, that a second referendum comes into the reckoning. It may be a cynical ploy to keep members on board by the leadership but it could ultimately be the one policy that could command support in parliament.

Of course support in parliament doesn’t mean the referendum result would be reversed despite most opinion polls now saying that it would. Opinion is still more or less equally divided on the EU and attitudes and positions have hardened on both sides since the original vote in June 2016. Another referendum would be a second chance but it could just as likely confirm the disaster of Brexit.