British beef prices are likely to remain high through 2024, a leading UK industry figure has predicted.

Nick Allen of the British Meat Processors Association (BMPA) said a shortage of store and finished cattle in the UK meant that a drop in beef prices in the short- to medium-term was very unlikely.

The British meat factories paid an average of £5.03/kg (€5.88/kg) for R3 steers last week, with up to £5.10/kg (€5.97kg) given in Scotland.

Although Irish factory quotes are 80-90c/kg below British levels, the fact that the UK prices look set to hold is good news for beef finishers here, since Britain takes more than 50% of Ireland’s beef exports.

“It is hard to see the UK beef price dropping given the cattle supply situation,” the BMPA chief executive explained.

Tighter British cattle numbers have resulted in near-record prices being paid in the country’s marts, Allen explained.

“Nobody is anticipating beef prices dropping back. They will remain high because of the shortage of livestock,” he added.

Although Australia can export more than 35,000t of tariff-free beef into Britain this year under the countries’ recent trade deal, the volumes that have been shipped to date have been small.

“But we’re starting to see a little bit more each month,” Allen admitted.

British cattle numbers have fallen by 1.2% over the last 12 months, with the total herd size dropping to 7.67m head.

Calf birth registrations (excluding dairy heifers) during 2023 fell by 52,600 head, or 2.5% to 2.07m. This is the steepest annual fall in birth registrations since 2013, according to the Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) – the levy board which represents farmers, growers and others in the supply chain.

The fall was entirely driven by fewer registrations to the suckler herd, as dairy-beef calf registrations continued to rise.