Global grain markets continue to be supported due to an expected tight supply and demand picture for this season (2021/22) and next season (2022/23), according to the latest Agriculture and Horticulture Development Board (AHDB) market bulletin.

Last week, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), the first report to detail the 2022/23 outlook.

The report anticipates that global wheat supply and demand next season will be tight.

Lower year-on-year forecasted production in Australia (-6.3Mt), Ukraine (-11.5Mt) and Morocco (-5.3Mt) outweighed increased crop outlooks for Russia (+4.8Mt), Canada (+11.3Mt), and the US (+2.3Mt).


Forecasted maize supply and demand for 2022/23 also looks tight, with the outlook for reduced ending stocks.

This is because of reduced crop forecasts for Ukraine (-22.6Mt), the US (-16.6Mt), the EU (-2.2Mt) and China (-1.6Mt).

These declines outweigh increased forecasted production in Brazil (+10Mt), Argentina (+2Mt) and South Africa (+1Mt) particularly.

In addition to conflict between Russia and Ukraine, dry weather, notably in India and France, is contributing to a tight supply picture for harvest 2022.


In India, hot weather in March resulted in a trim to its crop forecast - a key factor driving prices in recent weeks.

This weekend, India banned wheat exports to dampen domestic prices. However, the government has assured that exports will continue to countries that need supplies to meet food security needs.

With exports previously estimated to reach 10Mt this season, the market looked to India to fulfil some global demand for the remainder of the season, according to the AHDB.