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It’s been a tough year for beef prices here in Ireland, with the average price for an R3 steer back by 6.5% or €0.25/kg based on 2018 levels.
It has been a similar story across the water, with prices back by 7% in the UK and 5% across continental Europe. The Irish beef price has generally tracked the EU price and has sometimes exceeded it over the last number of years. If we go back to the start of the decade, Irish beef prices were 91% of the EU-15 R3 male cattle average. This moved to 101% in 2018. At the end of 2018, the Irish beef price was €3.39/kg, just €0.05/kg behind the EU average price. The Irish beef price actually ran €0.05/kg ahead of the EU price for most of 2018.
Over the past few weeks this there has been divergence again, with the Irish beef price now €0.27/kg behind the EU benchmark price according to the recently launched Bord Bia beef market index.
Cattle supplies
Up to the end of November there were 1.57m head of cattle slaughtered in Ireland in 2019, 60,000 less than the corresponding figure for 2018. At the beginning of August before the beef factory protests, throughput levels had been running 40,000 head above 2018 levels. The beef protests caused a backlog in the system which has continued for the last few months and is likely to continue into the early weeks of 2020 according to Joe Burke of Bord Bia. Average carcase weights have increased by 1.5% in 2019.
Beef exports
Trade data from the Central Statistics Office indicates that for the first nine months of 2019 there was a massive 9% decline in beef exports to the UK. According to Burke, this reflects a weaker demand, particularly in the food service sector. Looking at the UK’s import statistics, overall imports of beef into the UK are down by 13%, so Irish beef actually occupies 80% of the market up from 76% in 2018.
On the other hand, continental EU markets are performing quite well. Increased trade has been recorded in Germany (+1.5%), the Netherlands (+11%), Italy (+9%) and France (+8%).
It is estimated that overall beef consumption across Europe will fall by 1% in 2019. Irish beef exports into international markets have grown in 2019m with exports likely to hit 60,000t, more than double the 2018 level. Looking ahead to 2020, Burke says there is huge potential in China and other Asian markets and Ireland is well positioned to capitalise on increased demand from these countries.
Live exports
Live exports in 2019 are up 20% compared to 2018 and likely to hit 300,000 animals. Calf exports will hit a record level, making up almost 200,000 of this figure. Calf exports are up 25% on last year. The Netherlands and Spain are the two main markets for calves, followed by France, Belgium and Poland. Finished/adult cattle exports are up 33% while weanling exports are up 11%. Exports to Italy have seen a 27% recovery. The Turkish market for weanlings has been quiet in 2019 as a result of a weakening currency and a slowdown in the Turkish Ministry issuing import licences to importers. There are a number of exports of young bulls planned in the next few weeks, including further shipments to Libya.
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